I believe she's right. I believe she has been tipped off by Obama, who was tipped off by Kagan.
I believe the individual mandate will be struck down, but that the courts will leave the rest alone, so as not to appear too reaching. I believe it goes like this:
5-4 kill the mandate
6-3 leave the rest of the bill.
Of course, without the mandate, there IS no bill, but Obama will crow that it is a victory nonetheless.
I agree with your analysis. Some may see this as splitting the baby. But there is no doubt that without the individual mandate, Obamacare will have a hard time surviving. Still, the Dems will push to have the rest of the bill implemented on schedule and work on funding separately.