P!
Lankov discussed this in an 2009 interview:
The North Korean government is afraid that if they begin reforms, the result will not be economic growth, a Chinese-style economic miracle, but rather Eastern German or Romanian collapse followed by reunification. And they are afraid that in a unified Korea they will find no place for themselves.
But these peoples major goal is not economic growth. When someone asks, What is the strategic goal of North Koreas leaders? I usually answer, Their major strategic goal is to die in their beds. They want to stay alive, they want to keep the regime going, and they dont care much about economic growth because they believe that economic growth will take them to prison. And they are probably correct. So maybe, sooner or later, someone will try reform. But I would not expect it to happen anytime soon.
Q: We occasionally hear from defectors that there are reformminded officials in the middle levels of the government and Party who realize that the whole systempolitical, economic, and everything elsehas failed. Can these people, who have enough information to know how bad things are, have any influence over the long term?
A: In the long term, maybe, yes. But we shouldnt forget that once these mid-level people become high-ranking peopleand this is a necessary precondition for them to have any influencethey acquire a vested interest in keeping the system going. Because if the system collapses, its leadership will be in trouble, and they know it. This is partially because their rule has been exceptionally brutal and, at the same time, economically very inefficient. So the major problem of the North Korean elitemaybe most of them, and probably Kim Jong Il himselfis that they understand very well that the system is not delivering, but they simply dont know what to do about it. They dont see any way out. They dont have any exit option, and honestly I dont know what can be done about this.
http://www.rfa.org/english/commentaries/lankov-nk-02202009171534.html
What’s Behind China’s Fresh Crackdown on N.Koreans?
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But some others think the move aims to tame the North Korean regime. Since Kim Jong-un came to power, high-level exchanges between North Korea and China have mostly stopped, and there is little communication on strategic matters going on between the two allies. The tensions surfaced publicly when North Korean launched a rocket earlier this year and soldiers held Chinese trawlers to ransom.
North Korean government officials who are involved in dodgy dealings in China will also be subject to the crackdown. This includes businesses and North Korean restaurants that supply hard currency to the North Korean military. A diplomatic source in Beijing said, “A large restaurant called Daedonggang in Beijing set up by the North Korean military has been closed for two months because China did not issue work visas for some 50 North Korean workers there. It may be that China is trying to hold the regime’s activities in check.”
http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2012/05/26/2012052600375.html
Thanks for the ping.