If the economy isn't better by 2016 the White House might well revert back to the Democrats. With Romney controlling the party apparatus from the beginning of the primary cycle and reluctance to primary a sitting President, we're stlil talking 2020 before we get a conservative.
Tough to say. Romney got the nomination this time around (just barely) on the strength of his economic background, and a perception he could win. If the economy stinks by the next election, he won’t have that.
But five years out, we are in uncharted waters with the establishment controlling things, so you could be right.