I see some of the Florida Freepers are weighing in!
Would be interested to see the methodology of this poll. Many polls out there are undersampling Republicans or polling "registered" or "eligible" voters as opposed to "likely" voters.
The only polls that are meaningful are those that poll likely voters and those that take into consideration how voters in a given area are registered. For example, if Dade County has a registered voter distribution of 35% Dem, 32% Repub and 33% Independent, that is roughly how the sampling should be. The next county over might have a different makeup and the polling in that county should be adjusted accordingly.
As we get closer to the actual election, the above methodology is actually what the pollsters start using - as they want to protect their reputations. That's why most final polls are pretty much dead on. However, this far out, pollsters allow their biases to dictate how the polls come out, hoping to influence the final outcome.
I honestly thought that polls at this stage were going to show Obama well ahead ahead at this juncture in the battleground states, and if that was so, I would not be panicking because I would know that the margins would narrow as we got closer. The fact that most polls have the race as a dead heat or even Romney slightly ahead this far out does not bode well for Obama at all.
Very perceptive and agree 100%!