it would seem, just working frommemory here, that 3% undecided in May or a Presidential year is not much.
obviously obama is still leading in a state by state analysis, but over teh summer, these national numbers will start to drain the support out of those states which he won in 2008 that have been either swing or GOP states.
I think actually 49-44-5 is a realistic, plausible set of November numbers.
Not necessarily... The phrase "a rising tide lifts all boats" applies here. State polls are lagging, unless done at the same time.
Most of the RealClearPolitics state polls are stale. If Romney's winning by 5, you can bet he has an electoral lead as well, if all key states also had polls.