Posted on 05/07/2012 7:45:57 AM PDT by IbJensen
Despite what you may have heard from the mainstream media, Mitt Romney does not have the Republican nomination locked up. In fact, he is rapidly losing delegates that almost everyone assumed that he already had in the bag.
To understand why this is happening, you have to understand the delegate selection process. Each state has different rules for selecting delegates to the Republican national convention, and in many states the "voting" done by the public does not determine the allocation of delegates to particular candidates at all. And the truth is that delegates are the only thing that really matters in this race.
In state after state, the Ron Paul campaign is focusing on the delegate selection process with laser-like precision, and it is paying off big time. At this point, there is still a legitimate chance that Ron Paul will be able to win enough delegates to deny Mitt Romney the nomination on the first ballot at the Republican national convention in Tampa. If Romney does not have the 1,144 delegates that he needs on the first ballot, then it becomes a brokered convention and anything becomes possible at that point.
Sadly, most Americans have no idea how this process really works.
For example, originally we were all told that Mitt Romney won Iowa.
Then, later on we were told that a mistake was made and that Rick Santorum actually won Iowa.
Well, it turns out that Ron Paul actually won 20 out of the 28 delegates in Iowa. That is because the process of actually selecting the delegates occurred long after the voting by the public was over.
So what happens if the Ron Paul campaign is able to produce similar results in state after state?
The Ron Paul campaign is very organized, very motivated and they understand the rules of the game. As a recent Politico article detailed, there are huge amounts of unbound delegates out there that are still up for grabs....
There are roughly 30 states and territories where delegates aren’t bound to a particular candidate. The majority of the other states, according to a number of party officials, call for delegates to be bound for a first round of balloting but not the ensuing rounds.
“The dirty little secret is: At the end of the day, these guys and gals can vote any way they want,” said a Republican who has attended national conventions for decades. “Each state has different (laws) on pledged delegates.” In many states, the "official" results of voting done by the public mean next to nothing. The talking heads on television often tell us how many delegates are "projected" to go to a particular candidate, but as we have seen in Iowa and in so many other states, those "projections" are basically meaningless.
A recent Salon article discussed how the delegate selection process really works and how the Ron Paul campaign is using these rules to shake up the game....
In many caucus states, the “official” results that most people saw this winter were from nonbinding straw polls conducted in conjunction with precinct-level caucuses. But when it comes to choosing national convention delegates, the real action is at district caucuses and state conventions. In the past, this distinction hasn’t mattered much, but for the Paul forces – who lack the numbers to win statewide primaries but have the devotion to pack any room, anywhere, at any time – it has offered an inviting loophole. When turnout is small and no one is looking, the Paul folks can win, and that’s what’s been happening in a number of states.
To Paul die-hards, this will all culminate in a surprise for the ages in Tampa, with the political world suddenly realizing that Romney actually doesn’t have the 1,144 delegates needed to win the nomination, thereby allowing Paul to extract major concessions or even steal the nomination for himself. So could Ron Paul really deny Mitt Romney the Republican nomination?
At this point, nobody really seems to know what the real delegate count is.
Websites such as The Real 2012 Delegate Count are more accurate than most sources in the mainstream media, but even that site has been underestimating the true number of Ron Paul delegates.
Right now, Mitt Romney is not anywhere close to having the number of delegates that he needs for the nomination and Ron Paul just keeps picking up more delegates with each passing week.
For example, a Washington Post article that was posted on Sunday reported that Ron Paul just achieved a stunning delegate victory in Nevada....
Despite former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney’s overwhelming victory in the Nevada caucuses, Texas Rep. Ron Paul has won a majority of the state’s delegates to the party’s national convention later this year in Tampa, Florida.
Thanks to organized Paul supporters, who have been working to increase their candidate’s support at state conventions around the country, 22 of the 25 Nevada delegates up for grabs will be Paul supporters. (Another three are automatic delegates.) That was a state that Romney supposedly "won".
It looks like Romney has a real problem.
In state after state, Ron Paul is gobbling up delegates. The following are quotes from a recent Huffington Post article about what the Ron Paul campaign has been able to achieve in the past few weeks....
-"Sure enough, Paul has already won 20 out of the 24 delegates allocated in Minnesota, by winning a majority of the congressional district contests."
-"In Louisiana, Paulites "dominated" the congressional district caucuses this past Saturday, according to the New Orleans Times-Picayune. Paul's supporters carried four of the state's congressional districts, and are guaranteed at least 17 of 46 delegates in the Bayou State, with the potential to pick up more at the state convention on June 2."
-"The other state that Benton likely has his eye on is Colorado, where the Denver Post reported in mid-April that Paul supporters and Santorum backers combined forces to win a "stunning upset" at the state convention, guaranteeing that about half of the state's 33 delegates will be for Paul in August."
And look what just happened in Maine according to USA Today....
In votes leading to the close of the two-day Maine convention, Paul supporters were elected to 21 of the 24 delegate spots from Maine to the GOP national convention in Tampa, Fla.
So Ron Paul is definitely accumulating a huge pile of his own delegates, but even many so-called "pledged delegates" for Romney could end up playing a huge role for Ron Paul.
In some states, Ron Paul supporters have been getting elected into delegate slots that are supposed to go to Romney. This is highly unusual, and it could really shake things up at the national convention. As a Salon article recently explained there will be quite a few Ron Paul supporters that will actually be going to Tampa "disguised" as Romney delegates....
Besides the pledged delegates he’s won so far and the extras he’s collecting through caucuses and state conventions, Paul will also have some supporters disguised as Romney delegates.
To understand how this works, just consider his campaign’s mischief in Massachusetts, where Romney won 72 percent of the primary vote – and with it, a monopoly on the state’s pledged convention delegates. But to determine who would fill those pledged delegate slots, the state GOP held caucuses recently, and the Paul crowd came out in force, gobbling up 16 of the 19 available positions. In how many other states will this happen, or has it already happened?
But those delegates are required to vote for Romney, right?
Not so fast.
The Ron Paul campaign could actually ask those "disguised" Romney delegates to abstain during the first round of voting in Tampa. If Romney did not win on the first ballot, those delegates would then become unbound and would be able to support Ron Paul.
In fact, Ronald Reagan considered using this tactic against Gerald Ford in 1976. The following is from a 1976 article entitled "Reagan Forces May ‘Steal’ Ford Votes"....
“In secret strategy sessions, Reagan aides have toyed with the idea of asking delegates to abstain as long as their state laws require them to honor the primary verdicts.
This would prevent the President from riding up an early-ballot victory. Then, in subsequent ballots, they could legally switch to Reagan.
Delegates have abstained from voting before. Back in 2008, at least 14 delegates abstained from voting at the Republican national convention.
So what would happen if the Ron Paul campaign was able to get 100 or 150 "Romney delegates" to abstain from voting during the first ballot in Tampa?
That is a very intriguing question.
And remember, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich also have significant numbers of delegates pledged to each of them.
So Ron Paul does not need to accumulate 1,144 delegates himself to deny Mitt Romney the nomination on the first ballot. He just needs to keep Romney from getting to 1,144.
The race for the Republican nomination is not over.
You can find a state by state breakdown of delegate voting rules right here.
It is not too late to get involved.
If nobody gets to 1,144 on the first ballot in Tampa, it becomes a "brokered convention" and anyone can become the nominee - even someone that is not running right now.
So if you are not satisfied with Mitt Romney as the Republican nominee, don't lose hope yet.
The game is still being played.
It would be a challenge, but if his supporters get energized enough, it certainly is possible that Ron Paul could still win enough delegates to deny Mitt Romney the Republican nomination on the first ballot in Tampa.
And if that happens, anything is possible.
I see excellent fodder for a comic book. I will not be voting for either of these evil twins. I am hoping and working for a viable alternative. I would vote for Santorum, Paul, or Gingrich as an alternative to the two anti-Catholic, Statist, pro-death, pro-big government, anti-family twins.
Ron Paul is a pigaterian in a pigaterian swamp. Atlas Shrugged because he didn’t want Ron Paul, either.
Ron Paul supporters are math-challenged. How is he going to win 70% of remaining delegates when he has won so few so far?
Rhetorical question of course.
IMPORTANT side note to be aware of:
DO Not underestimate Rick Sanotrum’s plan to affect this election from “back seat driving”....he did not release his delegates to Romney in their recent chit chat in Pittsburgh....he’s holding out with purpose of doing just that, and will be “rewarded handsomely” for where he will put these.
That said... I’ve been waiting for this Paul delegate issue to surface as for awhile now I had heard his people were positioning themselves as delegates, fake and otherwise. I saw this clearly, in my district, on the list of delegates listed as Paul supporters when I voted in the Primary. So I visited his sites and sure enough they have been and are fast on the move and ducking so as not to be found out.
It looks like the idea is not so much the delegate vote would go for Ron Paul as much as it would open the way for any to step up if they refrain the first round.
Also the Paulites are indeed very organized. If someone “reveals” the current strategy of the moment others are quick to get the word out to cease exposing this on line...some take it down...therefore much of what they are doing is communicated other than websites.
I’m not for Ron Paul but if he can shake up this mess we’re faced with I’m all for “The Shake”....who knows who might step up then?
Ron Paul.
I don't like him. I think his followers, and even most of his detractors, are either outright liars or outright kooks. I think he has committed borderline treason standing up on a podium next to the likes of Kucinich. I don't think he can beat the Obama smear machine...
That being said, if he gets the GOP nod I'll vote for him. I cannot say the same for a pro-abortion liberal like Willard.
Please Jehovah... I'm begging you with tears in my eyes... Send us someone else that we can vote FOR instead of this constant battle between lesser and greater evils.
If the choice is between a nut job that understands the constitution, or a proven socialist, well, there is no choice... a socialist will never get my vote, NEVER... and just to clarify, mcromney is a socialist
. . . . Article and # 44.
Thanks to anonymous for calling attention to this thread.
If the Paulites can successfully force a brokered convention, I am happy to join with them in battle.
Newt is no longer in the primary race but at a brokered convention the delegates can draft him or he could seek their votes.
Every state is denying Romney.
Massachusetts. Now Maine.
That said, Romney has no chance. Zero. Zed. Nada.
I’m all for it.
Not for Paul, but for anything that throws the Convention wide open.
Yup. A revolutionary convention is needed.
REVOLUTION!!!!
It makes you reply to detailed analyses with content-free one-liners?
That's the whole point of the article: he may not (despite what the GOP-e and MSM would have us believe).
We will see, but I'm not holding my breath or anything.
You do know that not everyone who smokes weed is a pothead, in much the same way not everyone who has a drink is an alcoholic.
Speaking of destroying brain cells i am certain 99% of the people on here do so weekly, if not daily, by consuming alcohol.
Get off your high horse.
And incase you want to bash me and call me a pothead; I guarantee you I am more successful, better educated, drive a better car(2012 CLS 550) and have more money than you do. If you think I am being shallow, please show me a better barometer to measure success.
If you need something to be illegal to protect your children, then you are a bad parent. In any case it does not protect them one bit since if they want to do it, they will no matter the legality.
” - - - If nobody gets to 1,144 on the first ballot in Tampa, it becomes a “brokered convention” and anyone can become the nominee - even someone that is not running right now.
So if you are not satisfied with Mitt Romney as the Republican nominee, don’t lose hope yet. “
Thanks for this quote from the article that you posted. I do not see much of Value coming out of 4 years of Romney.
Hence, an ABR vote in Tampa would be very hopeful for America.
________
“- - - Ask yourself, aside from one or two foreign policy issues, what exactly is it that you disagree with him about?”
Yours is the most interesting question on this thread. If we say one thing and then do the other, then there must be over riding factors.
What are these factors? They are not logical, because when questioned, the respondents are at a loss for documented evidence of a specific factor.
Ping me when you figure this out!
Ron Paul ? We’re that desperate ? C’mon, folks.
**********
Nightmare Scenario: President Ron Paul
My undying opposition to whack job Ron Paul | 11/8/11 | Alan Levy
Posted on Tuesday, November 08, 2011 5:35:10 PM by Absolutely Nobama
In an alternate universe........
President Paul entered the White House Situation Room in a huff. It was about 4pm, and he was cranky. Everyone knew not to disturb President Paul during Judge Judy, but this was a national security emergency. The CIA now had definitive proof that the Islamic Republic of Iran had placed intercontinental ballistic missiles in Venezuela.
“Mr. President,” began Major General Major, the Commandant of the Marine Corps and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. “The Iranians have placed ICBM’s on the northern coast of Venezuela. We’re not sure about the capabilities of these weapons of mass destruction, but we have confirmation that they could reach Miami if launched. I recommend we strike now. We can scramble the bombers immediately.”
President Paul smiled kindly at Major General Major. He forgot all about having his Judge Judy time interrupted and his mind wandered back to how much fun he and the media had after Major General James Major became Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. “Major General Major....has a ring to it....” President Paul said to himself softly.
“Sir ?’
“Back off, fascist!” Chief of Staff Lew Rockwell screamed at the decorated war hero. “Can’t you see a great man is thinking ?!”
“Enhance your calm, Lew,” said Vice President Dennis Kucinich in a kindly voice.”That yelling and screaming stuff was okay when the Zionists ran the place, but the White House is a place of understanding now. It’s a place where we exchange ideas and hope, not hate and animosity.”
“You’re right, Mr. Vice President. I don’t know what came over me.”
President Paul looked over to his Secretary of Defense, Jesse Ventura. “What’s going on here, Jesse ?”
“I dunno, Mr. President”, shrugged Ventura. “I’ve been trying to get a hold of National Security Advisor [Alex] Jones all day. I know he’s very busy with his fourth 9/11 investigation, but why this guy can’t answer a text is beyond me.”
Secretary of State Pat Buchanan stood up from his chair. “Mr. President, If I may,” the old paleoconservative began. “You must live up to your promise not to interfere in the affairs of other states. Remember that stump speech you made at ‘Occupy Wall Street’ ? Remember how you promised to end all war and bring peace to mankind ? You must make good on that pledge. Those kids in the tents are counting on you.”
President Paul smiled. Mentions of “Occupy Wall Street” always made him happy. “You’re right, Pat. You’re always right. Even when you’re wrong, you’re right. This a much-to-do-over-nothing. We can’t be sure if the CIA is right. After all, those are violent people, and we all know that violent people are never right. Get on the horn, Pat. Ask Hugo nicely to remove the missiles if it all possible. If they don’t, well, that’s ok. Both Iran and Venezuela know that this is a different America now. They would never harm us. We’re a good, non-imperialist country now.”
President Paul turned to the nearest door to leave.
“No, no....Mr. President, that’s a closet,” Vice President Kucinich said putting his hand on the President’s shoulder. “Lew, help me get him to bed. Why we have these meetings so late in the day is beyond me.”
Two weeks later, the city of Miami was destroyed by Iranian made ICBMs launched from Venezuela’s northern coast.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2804451/posts
Sure...voting for someone with ties to Stormfront is a good idea...Hey, let’s vote for someone who has out earmarked Nazi Pelosi....
No chance in hell.
Sure...voting for someone with ties to Stormfront is a good idea...Hey, let’s vote for someone who has out earmarked Nazi Pelosi....
No chance in hell.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.