An incumbent president has to be at 50% or better to have much of a chance of being re-elected. This is basically good news, i.e. Romney does not appear to be anybody’s first choice, but Bork Obunga being re-elected would be catastrophic.
Mitt is genuinely worrisome. He is talking a pretty fair conservative line right now, but the flip-flopping “God” of the LDS does not exactly encourage its churchmen (Mitt’s a bishop) to avoid flip flopping themselves. If elected, will he hear a “divine voice” next year telling him to back off of all that conservatism?
However, Barack Obama seems hell bent on being a tyrant. There is slop in the system and Barack Obama seems to be intent on using every inch of that slop to consolidate power to himself and use it leftily.
I know it’s cliche’ but can you imagine the headlines, nightly cable memes etc. if the parties were reversed?
Romney would be a ‘fatally flawed/wounded incumbent’ below 50% in the polls etc.
A toss-up contest is Team Obama’s worst nightmare because it gives them no clue where to concentrate their efforts. As a result, they must spend much more in time, money and pandering trying to shore up support on multiple fronts.