[mamelukesabre]

Without some kind of incredible breakthrough in technology, there is not going to be a way out of this death spiral. These stupidass socialists will never make any meaningful cuts.

But the problem is, even if they do, it won’t solve anything in the short term. Lets say you chop government in half gradually over a 6 month period. That is going to put a lot of people out of work(government workers) in an economy that cannot absorb them...and to make matters worse, those people will stop spending money when they have no job and this will hurt the economy even more(in the short term).

The only way out of this is massive increases in manufacturing...and the only way that is going to happen is a sudden technology breakthrough. Fully autonomous android robots that can learn, better batteries, a new kind of computer, better spaceships, space elevator, permanent colony on the moon with its own mining and manufacturing...these are the kinds of things we need.

[ctdonath2]

Even an “incredible breakthrough in technology” isn’t going to happen fast enough; takes 6-24 months for any large-scale business model to ramp up, but once people go 3 days without food it’s over. Even meaningful cuts (the “austerity” referred to) won’t help because there’s insufficient productivity to backfill the erosion of wealth. Fork, done.

[buwaya]

The solution here is to look to non-fiscal effects of government policy.

Regulation is a hidden tax - effectively unfunded mandates. Reducing regulation is in part like a tax cut, it can act like a fiscal stimulus but without involving money.

Fiscal austerity can be combined with deregulation to work our way out of this jam.

[SoCal Pubbie]

Your conclusion is the same as mine. No real recovery until some sort of new gizmos drive the market. The automobile, airplanes, radio and movies help make the Twenties Roar after the downturn right after WWI. Post war technologies including the space race drove the post war era as the world recovered from the Depression and WWII. Electronics including CDs, DVDs, and the personal computer overcame Carter’s malaise.

What will be the new invention that brings back prosperity? And will the Luddites and control freaks in the government let it happen?

[St_Thomas_Aquinas]

——Lets say you chop government in half gradually over a 6 month period. That is going to put a lot of people out of work(government workers) in an economy that cannot absorb them..-——

Think of it this way. These govt employees hinder real productivity or, at best, produce nothing of value. IOW, one quarter of their potential work force might as well be on the dole.

Cutting govt employment by 50% immediately releases 15% (?) of their people for work that is of value to the Spanish people.

Productivity and tax revenues would grow immediately, also because investment would flow in.

[GonzoGOP]

Without some kind of incredible breakthrough in technology, there is not going to be a way out of this death spiral.

The spiral always ends.


The question is only if it is in a smoking hole in the ground, or if like Captain "Sully" Sullenberger you can make a controlled impact. In this metaphor the plane is the social system, the passengers the citizens of the nation involved. The plane is gone either way. You might be able to save the passengers, but if you try to stretch the glide too far you are probably going to lose both. Austerity is like putting the plane into the river while you still have enough airspeed to have some control.

[Kratos]

Excellent post.. you are entirely right.

[Theoria]

Valid points. Even if we did the right things to fix America, the world is has changed.

Our current model is to create the technology and outsource the manufacturing of it, ie Apple products overseas. Now, that's great for the consumer, they can purchase the product, but the US loses out in jobs here, taxes, and numerous other benefits.

America's great growth in the past was partly due to our technology advantages. Now, other countries have caught up in numerous ways, for it was easy for them to do so. Especially, considering the rush of companies to help them. We in the end our cutting our own throats.

Throw in our fake growth, by simple tricks of low interest rates, increased Gov't spending, and the fact that we have greated so much debt, the US will not recover.

[dead]

The only way out of this is massive increases in manufacturing...and the only way that is going to happen is a sudden technology breakthrough.

We could also try eliminating corporate tax, reducing personal tax drastically and slashing government regulation.

The labor needs of the expanding private sector could be met by the newly unemployed government workers, if they could be taught to produce.

[redgolum]

The argument can be made that automation got us into trouble. There is a portion of the population that does not have the skill or IQ for a higher level job, and that typically meant factory or farm work. As those have declined because of automation, you are left with a lot people who are not equipped to hold the remaining jobs.

What do you do with them? What for the mass uprising?

There isn't an easy answer.

[cherry]

we can slowly get rid of govt employees thru attrition....we don't have to cut 50% of them, but what we must do is make a wide sweeping cutback in pay and benefits....say even a 10% cutback on wages, benefits....and even make the retired govt worker take a pay and benefit cut..

I'm just guessing but an immediate and wide spread cut of about 10% would probably keep the economy going, and a tax cut to boot would get the economy GROWING...JMO...