the more liberal states on your list are the biggest prizes.
You’re making this more difficult than it has to be. The states below that I listed that don’t favor Romney have 55% of the delegates, which is exactly the amount Romney needs to lose to be denied the nomination outright. Now all these states have various WTA or proportional rules that affect the allocation. But all in all we can see this is a close enough call that Newt could pull it off if Romney just underperforms a little based on his past performance.
More Conservative?: (578 delegates)
Missouri
Pennsylvania
North Carolina
Indiana
West Virginia
Nebraska
Kentucky
Arkansas
Texas
South Dakota
New Mexico
More Liberal?: (381 delegates)
California
New Jersey
New York
Rhode Island
Delaware
Connecticut
Top 10 Mormon %: (94 delegates)
Utah
Oregon
Montana