Posted on 04/04/2012 4:32:20 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Three months have passed, 36 states and territories have voted, and the Republican party has yet to settle on a presidential nominee. Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich have pinned their hopes on a brokered convention in which committee members, most of whom can vote independently, could play a decisive role. Nonetheless, members of the Republican National Committee tell National Review Online that a brokered convention is unlikely to happen. And thankfully so, since most members believe it would harm the party’s chances of victory in November.
“There won’t be a brokered convention,” says Jack Lindley, chairman of the Vermont GOP. Mitt Romney is “more than halfway there” in terms of delegates, he argues. “I don’t know where the other guys’ Kool-Aid is coming from.”
Slightly more circumspect, Jim Bopp, national committeeman for Indiana, tells NRO that a brokered convention is “extremely unlikely.”
“To me it’s obvious that Mitt Romney has a substantial lead,” says Joe Trillo, national committeeman for Rhode Island. “And I think as it gets closer to the convention the other candidates should certainly step aside.”
There’s not much sympathy for ex–speaker of the House Newt Gingrich among these members. “I don’t understand where the heck Newt is,” says Pat Longo, national committeewoman for Connecticut. “One day he says Romney is the likely nominee; today I read that he wants his positions in the platform. I’ve served on a platform committee twice, and, quite frankly, I don’t think we’re going to see a lot of changes.”
“Gingrich doesn’t have a chance; he’s just being Gingrich,” says Jody Dow, national committeewoman for Massachusetts.
It’s worth noting that all of the foregoing Republicans are Romney supporters.
“I think Newt has gotten into the Don Quixote mode,” says Bob Bennett, national committeeman for Ohio. “I think he’s tilting at windmills.”
Not everybody is convinced the race is over. “All three candidates are a long way from 1,144 delegates,” says Peggy Lambert, national committeewoman for Tennessee. Nonetheless, she adds that those candidates who are “so far behind that they don’t really have a chance, I think they should drop out. But I’d like to keep Newt Gingrich’s pugnaciousness in there.”
Sandy Boehler, national committeewoman for North Dakota, is similarly torn over the pros and cons of a brokered convention. “I’ve kind of been looking forward to the excitement,” she admits. “It just brings the adrenaline out.”
“The president gets ink every day whether he likes it or not, so we are in a position to compete because there’s news — there’s something going on,” says Mark Zaccaria, chairman of the Rhode Island GOP. Zaccaria, however, thinks Romney will win the nomination before the first ballot is cast.
Because the RNC has been accumulating a war chest to use in the general election, “I don’t think a brokered convention would be detrimental to the candidate,” says Phyllis Woods, national committeewoman for New Hampshire.
Priscilla Rakestraw, national committeewoman for Delaware, agrees — to a certain extent. “A brokered convention is an advantage probably only to the viewing public,” she says, “and perhaps to the point that it adds additional excitement and electricity to the convention.”
Although she believes Romney will ultimately win, Rakestraw adds that she’s concerned with the tone the other candidates have taken recently. “I think from time to time they’ve forgotten who they’re running against. They’re not running against their fellow Republican; they’re running against President Obama.”
“I’m an agnostic on whether a contested convention would be a good thing or a bad thing,” says John Ryder, national committeeman for Tennessee. “The idea of the delegates elected by primary voters throughout the country making actual decisions is not a bad thing — in terms of small-r republican principles. On the other hand, the convention finishes on August 30, and early voting starts in many states 30 days after that. I think our candidate’s going to need more time to lay out the case against Barack Obama.”
Solomon Yue, national committeeman for Oregon, thinks the chances for a contested convention are slim, and for evidence he cites the lack of lobbying of RNC members by the candidates. “In 2008, I helped to organize RNC members for Mitt Romney, and we had 87 supporters,” he says. “Nothing is happening this year.” The reason, he suspects, is that the Romney campaign is confident it can win the 1,144 delegates needed to clinch the nomination without a “buffer” of super delegates.
For now, the prospect of a contested convention remains mere speculation, albeit speculation that brings a gleam to the eyes of some conservatives.
— Brian Bolduc is an editorial associate for National Review.
If he doesn’t drop out now, Santorum will be staying in simply to try enhance his name recognition for a 2016 run. Which sucks because for that plan to work he must root for Obama to win in November.
Newt is looking for a way out. He may require assistance in retiring his $2M campaign debt to help him make up his mind.
If you don't have the party base behind you it's simply not possible to win.
The National Review crowd seems to have forgotten how it's done.
So it’ best then to vote for Obama in November rather than Romney if Gingrich or Santorum are out of the picture? Now that makes sense. While Romney isn’t my preferred candidate I support what Palin said: anybody but Obama!
Get romney to write Newt a fat check... he has written everyone but Santorum and Gingrich checks to date.
LLS
Can you imagine the Paulistas, who want legal dope, to switch to Romney who carries with him the Mormon baggage that considers coffee and Coca Cola to be just as bad?
For virtually all Conservatives Santorum or Gingrich are a better choice than Romney under any and all conditions.
Can you imagine the Paulistas, who want legal dope, to switch to Romney who carries with him the Mormon baggage that considers coffee and Coca Cola to be just as bad?
For virtually all Conservatives Santorum or Gingrich are a better choice than Romney under any and all conditions.
The only big wins Romney has gotten are on the east coast. In the midwest he’s either lost big or barely scraped out wins. In the south he’s done nothing but lose.
The fact is, the media and GOP are desperate for everyone to get out before their big lie is exposed by losses Romney will take in upcoming states.
If Romney is the nominee, an Obama victory is a foregone conclusion. The focus now should be what systemic change conservatives can make to the Republican Party to make it a real opposition party, or whether leaving a party that already left us is a better option.
...the convention finishes on August 30, and early voting starts in many states 30 days after that. I think our candidate’s going to need more time to lay out the case against Barack Obama.”
Waiting until September right before the voting begins to run ads for Romney (or whoever else) is about as stupid as we can get.
I am not sure if what I have read falls into the category of a brokered convention or not.
The topic surrounds around FL and other states,where the RNC has declared the delegates would be awarded on a percentage basis to the to the participants. The media and the RNC are not counting the delegates as they should be, i.e. by percentage vs winner take all.
Newt has stated many times, Mitt must earn his 1144. Does this mean Newt could challenge the RNC in the courts to follow their rule?
Umm...huh?
The only state Romney has a chance of losing for the rest of the month is Pennsylvania (leaving aside Missouri which has yet another meaningless caucus or something.)
Even if it’s Obama’s brother?
I agree
I am sure YOU republicans will be just fine without my conservative vote. Have fun.
Romney IS obama. NO THANKS.
That’s where I’m at, Colonel.
The party that I have been a loyal member of for my whole adult life..has abandoned me.
So should I leave them or stay and hope that they will finally acknowledge the Conservatives who are responsible for their victories in 2010 and change?
Mittens will throw the Tea Party under the bus as soon as the ink on his nomination papers is dry.
And he still refuses to come on Mark Levin’s show. What does that tell you?
I meant to put an LOL after the word change in my last post.
..but suffice to say if I didn't know before that the Republicans have no interest in folks like me.......I certainly know now.
I have been a loyal Republican since the day I was old enough to vote....
.....I didn't leave them.....they left me.
Romney is evil, imo....and he has spent millions trying to wipe out all opposition...by ruthless and cutthroat means.
WHY IN THE WORLD WOULD I VOTE FOR HIM.....I WON'T.
The Messiah is now assured of 4 more years, and CWII will ensue, make no mistake about it. The Muslim-in-Chief has been ruling by EO's, and has now pronounced that he is in total command of all resources, military, etc., so that when the 85% of the country which is white, begins to stir against the combined Marxist-Black alliance, he will try to quell the uprising that says "ENOUGH!".
It's gonna be a mess......and, the Economy will collapse totally.
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