He's a narcissist. He would never envision a world where he doesn't win.
Additionally, following a loss, he would have no power in the coming years, so his promise of capitulation would only be relevant in the event of a win.
I wouldn't read more into it than that.
Not true. For all we know Obama knows he might lose, and was working out a deal with the Russians for AFTER he leaves office.
You know.... when he can be 'more flexible' because he won't be held to the limelight or the rules.