The wise Latina is going to vote against it. She is irrelevant to the vote count. Both she and Kagan replaced previous no votes.
This is up to the five relevant justices. The mandate argument comes down to the act of forcing citizens to pay for a product or service in the private sector. If the federal government can force 300 million people to buy this...what can they not force them to purchase. It is an intellectual argument that is quite strong. I can certainly see Kennedy go either way, but I don’t expect to see him side with Kagan and that crew. I do however, foresee Kennedy or one of the others side with the other side on letting the rest of the law stand. Despite there being no severability clause in the law, the appellate court in the FL/26 state case reversed the lower court. Originally, the Federal judge wiped out the entire law, but the higher court kept the decision on the mandate but reversed the decision to declare the entire law unconstitutional. I don’t see this court reversing that decision by the appellate court. That would be potentially one of the largest acts by this court in history.
I'm hopeful they will, but distrustful that they will.