The demographics of the elections changed drastically from 2008 to 2010. The shift from Democrat to Republican was something like 18% overall, which is enormous. Under McDonnell and the Republican house, Virginia has done very well. I know unemployment is below 6%, so that’s a fantastic sign compared to the rest of the country.
On RCP, there was an NBC/Marist poll from a few weeks ago that showed Kaine up by 9. The internals of the poll were fascinating - when you look at likely voters instead of just registered voters, there was an enormous shift towards conservative voters.
If these numbers are indicative of what will happen in 2012, Obama might lose by 20. If that happens, there’s simply no way that Allen will lose.
Flint - thanks for this - it really is fascinating and tracks with what I suspected.
I half-heartedly support Allen - I wish we had someone new, fresh and solidly conservative - an easy win for Allen might make him “squishy” - but I’d take him over an Obambot like Kaine any day.
Never could figure out why Virginians voted for Kaine to begin with...carpetbagger, lib, non-catholic.