Why Obama Will Lose in November

I received a campaign letter from Michelle Obama the other day. This is especially surprising because I am a registered Republican; hardly a likely prospect to contribute to her husband’s reelection efforts.

“Every day I learn about the challenges and the struggles—the doctor bills they can’t pay or the mortgage they can no longer afford,” said the text. The “fairness” theme, a socialist meme, was expressed. “American prospers when we are all in this together, when hard work pays off and responsibility is rewarded, when everyone—from Main Street to Wall Street—does their fair share and plays by the same rules.”

The fact is, however, America has not been prospering for the last four years during which Barack Obama has been President. And everyone knows it. The U.S. sovereign debt rating was downgraded for the first time while he occupied the Oval Office. Federal spending (25% of GDP) is the highest since World War Two. Federal debt (67% of GDP) is the highest since just after the end of World War II, and the nation has experienced, not only the longest recession, but the highest unemployment since the 1930s.

In the first nineteen months of his term, Obama added more federal debt than was amassed by all U.S. Presidents from George Washington to Ronald Reagan.

I have two theories about the November 6 election. (1) That it will be an overwhelming defeat for Obama or (2) that it will be so close we could see a situation comparable to the Bush-Kerry election in 2004.

Obama’s Achilles’ heel is, of course, Obamacare. As Robert Bluey of The Heritage Foundation notes, recent polls indicate that 53% of Americans favor repeal and more than half (57%) say that the Supreme Court should strike it down as unconstitutional. Fully 60% of physicians believe the law will have a negative impact on overall patient care.

The Congressional Budget Office revisited Obamacare this past week and concluded that 20 million Americans could lose their employer-sponsored health benefits and 49 million more Americans could become dependent on government-sponsored health care. Projecting through 2022, Obamacare could cost as much as $2.134 billion and the employer-mandate penalties could hit $221 billion.

There’s another reason why Michelle Obama was writing to me last week. As Karl Rove noted in a Wall Street Journal March 14 commentary, “Many of Mr. Obama’s 2008 donors are reluctant to give again” to his campaign. “As the Obama campaign itself reported, fewer than 7% of 2008 donors renewed their support in the first quarter of his re-election campaign, well below the typical renewal rate.

The Obama campaign and the Democratic National Committee are burning through current donations so fast that the White House has told this year’s congressional candidates that they will not receive any funding support for their campaigns because Obama needs all the money.

While Obama’s 2012 campaign is already showing signs of stress, other issues will impose great pressure. Unemployment affects most American families either directly or because some member of the family or a friend is unemployed. Even the unemployed vote.

The price of gasoline continues to rise. Releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve that exists for use only in an emergency is not a solution, and Americans are well aware that this administration has opposed or thwarted every effort to drill for more oil on federal lands. The failures of “green energy” companies that have cost Americans billions in loan guarantees are well known. A President who hypes “algae” as an energy solution will be seen as a fool and/or a complete charlatan.

Recent polls indicate how close the 2012 election may be. Obama has lost ground among female voters. In a head-to-head match-up with Mitt Romney, women voters back Obama 49%, but that is seven points lower than 2008. A Rasmussen poll found that 59% of likely voters asked whether Obama is more liberal or more conservative than they are answered that he was more liberal. Of these likely voters, 65% who are also union members thought Obama was more liberal than themselves.

Polling firms have been asking Americans to self identify themselves as conservative or liberal for decades. In February 2012, Gallup polling revealed “that in every single state with the exception of Massachusetts” conservatives outnumbered liberals.

The Battleground Poll conducted by George Washington University in collaboration with Democrat and Republican polling organizations found that 58% of Americans described themselves as “very conservative” or “somewhat conservative”, while only 37% described themselves as “very liberal” or “somewhat liberal.”

A conservative campaign message will win in 2012 and this explains why the Republican primaries are all about candidates striving to describe themselves as a “true conservative.”

Even the mainstream media are showing less enthusiasm for Obama. When even The Washington Post rejects Obama’s lies about U.S. oil reserves, as it did on March 15th, it suggests there may be a growing, wider level of disenchantment with the man they embraced in 2008.

Obama will lose in November. It may be a very close election or it may be an overwhelming rejection, but the polling numbers and the state of the economy will be the deciding factors.

Memo to Michelle Obama: The “fairness” message is not working. The appalling failures—“stimulus” anyone?—of Obama’s first term will ensure that there will be no second term.

The country has survived way worth than Obama throughout her history and not only we have survived but also we have prospered and have become more powerful and more advanced than any other nation in history of mankind.

By survive, I mean retaining the values and vision of our founders. In addition to Obama's out of control spending and transforming this country into a socialist utopia, there are other circumstances surrounding this nation's fate that need to be addressed by someone other than the most radical person ever to occupy the WH.

Demographically, this nation is changing rapidily. The U.S. adds one international migrant (net) every 36 seconds. Immigrants account for one in 8 U.S. residents, the highest level in more than 90 years. In 1970 it was one in 21; in 1980 it was one in 16; and in 1990 it was one in 13. In a decade, it will be one in 7, the highest it has been in our history. And by 2050, one in 5 residents of the U.S. will be foreign-born.

87 percent of the 1.2 million legal immigrants entering annually are minorities as defined by the U.S. Government and almost all of the illegal aliens are minorities. By 2019 half of the children 18 and under in the U.S. will be classified as minorities and by 2039, half of the residents of this country will be minorities. Generally, immigrants and minorities vote predominantly for the Democrat Party. Hence, Democrats view immigration as a never-ending source of voters that will make them the permanent majority party.

Since the 1965 Immigration Act, our pro-population growth immigration policies have fueled major demographic changes in a very short period of time. In 1970, non-Hispanic whites comprised 89 percent of the population; today they are 66 percent; and by 2039, they will be 50 percent. The Democrats, under the banner of multiculturalism and diversity, have forged a political coalition that depends on individuals coalescing around racial and ethnic identities rather than the issues. The continuing and increasing flow of minority immigrants, mostly poor and uneducated, provides a natural constituency for the Democrats, which see them as their principal source of political power.

We have created a culture of dependency with almost half of the population receiving a government check. There are 54 million on SS, 47 million on Medicare, 60 million on Medicaid, and 46 million on food stamps. Those numbers will go up dramatically in the next 20 years due to an aging population and Obamacare, which will add 18 million to Medicaid. By 2030, one in five in this country will be 65 or older, twice what it is now, and there will be only two workers for every retiree.

Four more years of Obama will ensure that nothing is done to roll back the welfare state or to make significant cuts in government spending. If interest rates rise back to historic rates, we could be spending a trillion dollars a year in just debt servicing costs. If that happens, the whole house of cards comes tumbling down.

Obama's czars will continue to regulate this country to death and money will continue to flow to green energy. Taxes will not be cut, but rather, raised come January 2013.

Yes we can survive 4 more years of Obama if we have to and if we keep the House, most probably the case, then Obama damage would be greatly limited. In fact historically Obama has so far done far less damage in implementing socialism than FDR or even LBJ. Obama is probably the worst socialist President in term of rhetoric but his actions are much weaker than his rhetoric because he is weak and incompetent and for this we are fortunate.

First, we are not the same country that existed under FDR or LBJ. We were not the world's biggest debtor nation. We didn't have debt equal to our GDP. And now the chickens are coming home to roost in terms of the welfare state. Our aging society will bankrupt this nation.

Obamacare will be the final nail in our coffin. It will not only bankrupt us, but it will undermine the Constitution to the point that it will be meaningless in terms of controlling the power of governmemnt. Obama is the most dangerous man ever to occupy the office. His policies will have a long term impact that will only be felt full years from now.

Obama, our first black President, will divide this fragile nation along race and ethnic lines to ensure that the Dem Party becomes the permanent majority party as the demographics continue to change and America is a minority nation by 2039. The vision and values of our Founders will continue to come under attack as they are portrayed as rich white racists who didn't and wouldn't accept an America run by "people who didn't look like them."

An America divided facing profound economic challenges with places our Republic in grave danger. Four more years of Obama will be the tipping point in our history from which we will never recover. Great nations rise and fall. America is in decline and Obama will just hasten the process.

Some evidence that America is changing philosophically, a reflection of how effective the Left has been in taking over our educational system.

Americans tire of "free market," says poll

A 2009 Rasmussen poll showed that only 53 percent of American adults believe capitalism is better than socialism, and that a full third of U.S. citizens under 30 believe socialism is a superior system.

The international polling firm GlobeScan asked 12,884 people in 25 countries whether they agreed or disagreed with the following statement: "The free market system and free market economy is the best system on which to base the future of the world."

Apparently, only 59 percent of Americans - with a margin of error of around four points - "strongly agreed" (37 percent) or "somewhat agreed" (22 percent). 80 percent of people in the U.S. picked one of these two options in 2002, and as recently as 2008 - when the number started a precipitous decline - more than 70 percent still gave the free market a thumbs up.

For a couple of months, every sentence from Republican officials and Fox News personalities had to include the word "socialism" while attacking the president. It didn't have much of an effect. Maybe the smears didn't connect because people don't think "socialism" is all that bad.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 20% disagree and say socialism is better. Twenty-seven percent (27%) are not sure which is better.

Adults under 30 are essentially evenly divided: 37% prefer capitalism, 33% socialism, and 30% are undecided. Thirty-somethings are a bit more supportive of the free-enterprise approach with 49% for capitalism and 26% for socialism. Adults over 40 strongly favor capitalism, and just 13% of those older Americans believe socialism is better.

“As much as I do not want 4 more years of Obama, I believe even more strongly that I do not want to send a message to the GOP that I support their rhinos.”

“This country won’t survive four more years of Obama. Obamacare will be firmly in place—irreversible. And his czars and continued spending will place us on a path to a Greek-like meltdown. In fact, it may already be too late given the huge debt Obama and the Dem Congress racked up in a little over three years—more than the total accrued from Presidents Washington thru Clinton and now more than Bush 43 incurred in eight years.”

The idea that you can ‘send a message’ with your vote by letting Obama win is lunacy. The winners will do what they want, and what Obama wants is to PERMANENTLY SOCIALIZE THE USA. We never undid most of what FDR and LBJ wrought, and Obama’s ‘legacy’ is to be as big of a govt grower as them. A 2nd term will make him succeed in his socialist quest.

RINOs will get ‘this message’ if they lose to a leftist: “We cant rely on conservatives, so lets cater even MORE to the center.”

The real solution is to ‘primary’ RINOs, ie if you dont like Romney, defeat him NOW. So vote out Obama in november, but in the meantime, support the conservative primarying of RINO Lugar in Indiana, etc. one defeated RINO is worth 3 more Senators in the Senate (because 3 more RINOs will start ‘behaving’ better.).

If Rick Santorum is our nominee, Obama will lose big time. If Newt is our nominee, it will be close but he will win. If Romney is our nominee, I don’t think we will win it.

This election is about business.

For many political junkies, it is about patriotism, the flag, America, apple pie, the 4th of July ... good vs evil.

For business, it is about communism vs semi-capitalism {also known as NAZIs national socialism}.

Business can live with and flourish under the national socialist style "nazi" of government, but will wither and die under any communist.

Ergo, obama must go, and business will pump any amount into his demise, and if it's mittens, they don't care.

He can be bought for a few million, even if it's a hundred million or more, they will pay to get obama out.

There is a trillion dollars worth of pent up demand waiting to be unleashed, and billions of dollars of profit to be made, and it won't be denied because of a halfrican, mooselimb, communist, prick.

Oh please stop the drama. Yeah we are in more dangerous time now then when we were during the Civil War or the Great Depression, or Word War II, or Vietnam, etc…... Get real folks… It seems that there are always people who each day say that this is the end of America as we know it is unless this and that happen… All BS and sky is falling foolishness.

The short answer is yes we are in more dangerous times now than we were before. I served in Vietnam and never would equate it with WWII or the Civil War in terms of the threat to our national survival. The challenges we face now are economic and demographic. They are not the immediate, visible threats posed by war and destruction. The precarious state we find ourselves in is far more dangerous and permanent and could rend the very fabric of our political comity and consensus.

You and many like you are in a state of denial. They can't believe how close to the edge we really are in terms of an economic meltdown. Like the proverbial frog being slowly boiled alive, we will only realize how dire things are before it is too late to change things. We cling to this childlike, naive belief that somehow everything will turn out all right because it always has. Well, no nation can rely on such folly and delusion. We are in serious trouble. We have over $60 trillion in unfunded liabilities plus a national debt equal to our GDP. As Ryan likes to say, we are witnessing one of the most predictable crises in history.

We have a very long way to go before we reach a point where we need to even worry about not being the most powerful and most advanced nation in history of mankind, I will say two centuries if not more…

LOL. I notice that your response contains emotion and no facts. You fail to address the very real problems that are facing this country and would rather rely on some sort of mystical faith that everything will turn out alright. There is no guarantee that the America of our Founders will last two centuries. Stop spouting empty words and pablum and give me some facts on how we will deal with these problems.

There is no doubt that we need to reform the entitlements. Better economy will also enhance the situation and eventually we are going to get a better economy in the next few years. It is really interesting that you have been focusing on our biggest liabilities as being the social security and medicare the two programs that were created by FDR and LBJ respectively and which proves my earlier point that Obama is not even close in term of socialism damage that these two did… and despite all the damages that that they did we are the only superpower in the world…

There is one more very powerful thing that we can always do to get more money and without causing any real damage to the economy…no other nation can do this without destroying its economy… Call it the secret that the ones in powers do not want to talk about… I will let you guess this one.

PS: Everything in the world is relative, so nations have always to be compared to each others rather than being measured as stand alone, ponder this thought as well…

There is no doubt that we need to reform the entitlements. Better economy will also enhance the situation and eventually we are going to get a better economy in the next few years.

Reforming entitlements is easy to say but hard to do. SS is fairly easy but Medicare is far more difficult not only from the standpoint of actuarily, but also, politically. What we are witnessing here and in Europe is the collapse of the welfare state. We can't afford the promises we made.

The Left will fight any reforms of the entitlement programs and will try to increase taxes and strip defense spending to keep the system going a little while longer. The fact is that they are unsustainable as currently structured. Obamacare will add another 18 million to Medicaid, which already has 60 million in the program, which is funded by about 50% by the states, which are also in trouble. The real question is whether there is the political will and public support to make the needed changes. The Greeks took to the streets to keep the benefits flowing. Draconian austerity measures have been approved by parliament pushed by the EU to enact them or lose the bailout money. The real question is whether the austerity measures will be implemented or even work. Having lived three years in Greece, I doubt that will happen. It is just not in the DNA of the people.

A better economy will be hard to achieve given globalization and the stagnant wages of US workers, which have remained essentially the same in 1969 dollars. Our economy depends on consumerism. I believe there will be less discretionary income. Couple that with an aging population and a burgeoning growth of the entitlement programs and national debt, I believe we have structural problems never faced before in this country. Industry is relocating to the emerging economies lock, stock, and barrel, which have just as educated a work force, cheaper labor, and less regulation. And even with a recovering economy (at much lower rates than in our history,) we will still not be able to afford our entitlement programs, which represent a $60 trillion unfunded liability.

It is really interesting that you have been focusing on our biggest liabilities as being the social security and medicare the two programs that were created by FDR and LBJ respectively and which proves my earlier point that Obama is not even close in term of socialism damage that these two did… and despite all the damages that that they did we are the only superpower in the world…

It is all cummulative. FDR and LBJ could put such programs in place given our economic and demographic strengths. Bush 43 expanded medicare with the prescription drug program, a $7.2 trillion unfunded liability, and now Obamacare, which we really don't know how much it will cost in the long run. Medicare costs nine times the original estimate. FDR and LBJ weren't the only Presidents to add to our culture of dependency. No Presidents since FDR have pushed for the roll back of the welfare state. None running today wants to get rid of SS, Medicare, or Medicaid. They just want to make the welfare state run more efficiently and cheaply.

The 1965 Immigration Act has changed this nation forever de3mographically and will eventually lead to the Dems being the permanent majority. We will add 130 million people to our population in the next 40 years, 75% due to immigration. 57% of immigrant headed households with children are on at least one major welfare program. By 2050, the US will have roughly the current demographics of California where one in four is foreign born, non-Hispanic whites are less than 50% of the population, and one in three is Hispanic. I doubt that CA will be Republican anytime soon.

We can't print our way out of this problem. And there is nothing written in stone that the dollar has to be the world's reserve currency. The dollar is already seriously devalued and is in decline.

PS: Everything in the world is relative, so nations have always to be compared to each others rather than being measured as stand alone, ponder this thought as well

Great nations and empires rise and fall. Certainly the UK's, France's, and Spain's positions in the world have fallen relative to other nations. The US position has risen, but we are now in decline. Other nations like China are rising in terms of economic and military power. We owe the Chinese over $1 trillion. The interest we pay them will fund their military.

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