Posted on 03/18/2012 10:14:19 PM PDT by VinL
Mitt Romney is headed for a blowout victory in Illinois on Tuesday. He leads with 45% to 30% for Rick Santorum, 12% for Newt Gingrich, and 10% for Ron Paul.
Romney's particularly strong among voters who live in suburban areas (50-29) and with those who live in urban areas (46-23). But he's even running slightly ahead of Santorum, 38-36, with folks who identify as living in rural parts and that strength with a group of voters he hasn't tended to do that well with is why he's looking at such a lopsided margin of victory.
Romney tends to win moderates in most states and Santorum usually win voters describing themselves as 'very conservative.' The swing group in the Republican electorate is those identifying as just 'somewhat conservative.' Romney is winning those folks by a whooping 60-20 margin in Illinois. Romney's also benefiting from a 52-28 advantage with seniors. We've tended to find Santorum a lot more popular with voters even in states that Romney has won over the last six weeks, but that's not the case in Illinois. Romney's favorability is 57/34, about par for the course of where we've found him this year. Santorum's at only 55/36, much worse numbers than we've seen for him most places in the last couple months, and suggesting that GOP voters are starting to sour on him a little bit.
Santorum's winning the group he tends to do well with- Tea Partiers, Evangelicals, and those describing themselves as 'very conservative.' But he's not winning them by the kinds of wide margins he would need to take an overall victory- he's up only 8 with Tea Party voters and 10 with Evangelicals, groups he needs to win by more like 25 points with to hope to win in a northern state. Santorum can't blame Gingrich for his troubles in Illinois either. If Newt was out Romney would still have an 11 point advantage on Santorum, 45-34.
Oh give me a break. Quit whining. You have obviously swallowed the stupid lie that this is all about Newt and his ego. IT IS NOT!!! He is truly afraid for our country. And he truly believes that Mitt is only a little bit better than Obama and that RICK CANNOT WIN. And that’s the way that most of his supporters feel as well. But you just want us to lay down and play dead?! We are in a fight for our lives here!
This is NOT about the money, this is NOT about ego, this is NOT about power for NEWT. This is about not losing our country. This is about the establishment/ruling class strangling us with their power (and I know that this will tick you off but Rick knows all too well how to be a “team player” with them) This all makes it really, really, really hard to give up the fight.
I and my family will be voting for Santorum today, not because he’s my number one choice, actually he’s my number two choice but it looks like he has the best shot of beating the scum bag Romney.
I really hope the rats come out in full force in Chicago/Cook County to vote for Santorum, it’s the best chance he has. They erroneously believe that Obama would beat him easier than Romney.
He thinks people will come around, and I'm not so sure he's wrong about that. Trouble is, Obama has people coming around too, and more of them, and they cheat better too.
I keep trying to suggest to people:....The likely way, maybe the only way, we will get a truly Conservative president is first get him in as vice-president. Then have a successful 4 or 8 year term with our Republican president and finally get the conservative veep elected as president.
Romney has stated he expects to be a 4 year president because of taking on the serious tasks of reforming our government to save us from the impending bankruptcy we all face. Limbaugh says he was told this second hand. I believe him.
So the trick for this election cycle is to get Romney and a conservative vice-president elected and have Romney do the very hard things that must necessarily be done and then get Rubio or Christie, for example, elected in 16. The difficult part is not having both of them blamed for the coming changes to medicare and social security and medicaid at the state level.
Newt or Santorum don’t have and never had a chance to be elected as president. Ronald Reagan they ain’t.
If Newt got out, how do you know all his votes would go to Santorum? How do you know Newt voters would even vote?
There was a time when an eighth-grade education meant something. Today, your average college graduate doesn't know the circumstances that brought Lincoln to the nomination. But I can assure you it was nothing like today, and it came as a complete surprise to a lot of people when a few people finally made the difficult decision to go with Abe Lincoln.
..and I find it endearing
Let me amend the previous post by saying IF Obama really crashes and burns (hoping so!) even Newt or Santorum would have a cnance to beat him. I just don’t want to pin my hopes on that slim chance. Rather take my chances with Romney.
Thanks, Rick.
Newt’s and Santorum’s are the conservative votes...do you think those voters would vote for a progressive liberal like Romney?
It sure is. Now if we could get rid of Chicago things would be different.
Newt has to pull a rabbit out of his hat or, once again, I will be voting against rather than for a candidate.
Go Santorum?
The projectiions say Newts votes would go about 50-50 to Romney and Santorum. Leaving the Romney/Santorum gap with Romney up by 10 or 12.
“Progressive liberal” is an oxymoron, since liberal ideas don’t cause progress.
Two-State Newt is determinedly looking for either a third state or a pedestal.
Looking more and more like the ‘Pubs are making up their collective mind and (ugh) want Romney.
The GOPe plan to lose the general election advances forward.
I read that, according to a few polls, if Gingrich quits, 60% of his supporters would support Santorum, and 40% would support Romney.
MS and AL people though rarely think like their non-relatives in IL.
I used to think that would solve the problem too my FRiend. Sadly, it looks like many conservative county bastions are falling to the "Chicago way" philosophy. That has been the trend for the last several elections.
Illinois has lost its way. The strategy has been to nominate a RINO because conservatives are too extreme, and that's the only way to appeal to the electorate in a general election.
We'll see if there's even a glimmer of hope and sanity tomorrow.
IL voted for Ford in 1976 in both primary and general election. But I think it did choose Reagan in both in 1980. It began moving sharply left in the 1990s though a conservative temporarily held a Senate seat.
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