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To: Keyes2000mt
Sorry, I haven't posted regularly in a while on FR and am use Blog software that takes care of paragraphs. Let me repost my response.

On the not mentions, I'd put three into a new category: Likely non-factor, with one being a help Romney:

Missouri: Help Romney-By splitting conservative votes in Caucus could allow Romney and Paul delegates to get elected. These aren't proportional contests. These are contests to elect the people who elect the delegates. If conservatives split their votes, it'll allow Romney and Paul to pick up delegates.
Utah: Gingrich can neither hurt nor help Santorum there. The primary went 90% for Romney in 2008 and is winner-take-all, so even if Romney drops to 70%, he'll get all the delegates. District of Columbia: Newt is on the ballot, Santorum isn't on the ballot, so Newt could in theory hurt ROmney. The problem is that DC tends to be an establishment town and therefore a Romney town. It's also winner-take-all. In theory, Newt could win it, but in practice, it's tough to foresee a conservative taking DC. It went 65% for John McCain.
Puerto Rico: Gingrich should be a non-factor as are most candidates who don't campaign in Puerto Rico. Traditionally not campaigning candidates get somewhere between 1 and 5% of the vote. If either Santorum or Romney get 50% of the vote, Gingrich will have not factored. However, if one candidate is very close to 50%, he may play a role. If the total is something something like Santorum 48%, Romney 44%, with Gingrich we can conclude that Gingrich cost Santorum a majority which would have given him all the delegates. If it's more like Romney 49%, Santorum 45%, then we can say Newt hurt Romney. Both are somewhat unlikely scenarios, so I'll leave it along with the other three at non-factor.

Did you even read the article? It's premised on 56% of Newt's votes going to Rick. I think if Rick announced Newt as his V.P., who he has said at least twice before he would consider, then I think Rick could get far more of Newt's votes than that. Actually, I suspect a lot of folks have been responding to this article without reading it.

I think many people have been commenting without reading it. Thank you for reading it.

68 posted on 03/15/2012 11:06:11 PM PDT by Keyes2000mt
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To: Keyes2000mt
Puerto Rico: Gingrich should be a non-factor as are most candidates who don't campaign in Puerto Rico

What year was it that Speaker Gingrich got on the soapbox for Puerto Rican statehood? And then nothing happened. One would think Newt would be full time this weekend in Puerto Rico.

81 posted on 03/16/2012 6:24:33 AM PDT by Theodore R. (Mathematically, it's all over, says Mittens. I'm pretty sure the people will again let us down.)
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