This is from Stephen Luftschein of the gingrich campaign. I know Stephen a little, and he is a good guy. what he writes about here is basically Romney in the coming weeks. I think he may be onto something because I saw an article today that romney has started laying of staff...
anyway... may it be a balm to those who need it...
Dear Newt Volunteers,
Let me first give you some straight facts about today/tonight and Alabama and Mississippi. Newt was shooting for wins, so clearly, it is disappointing, but in terms of all important delegates, the difference between first by a couple of points and second by a couple of points is very small indeed (as of this writing the exact numbers are still not in).
Romney finished third in both states in what was a very good night for Santorum.
But here is what is being missed. Paul Begala hinted at it tonight on CNN. Many of you have heard me on our statewide calls and in private conversations discussing why Romney comes across the way he does, why he stutters, and seems to be constantly scanning the audience to gauge the crowd reaction before moving to his next point.
It is because of his training as an investor. It is the same reason why an investor is not qualified to be President, as opposed to a businessman/entrepreneur. Investors gauge markets. They judge situations and adjust on the fly to find the best investment. This is why Romney appears to have no central idea, because he is gauging the “market” of his particular audience. In front of a crowd, testing his “Investment” to see if the crowd is buying the product.
An entrepreneur, or great political candidate, is driven by an idea. He/She has a goal, and will move toward that goal despite any obstacles placed in their way.
Well, it is not surprising that much of Romney’s “insider” support comes from individuals and businesses with similar backgrounds and ideas. This is not to denigrate investment, but a simple analysis of a thought process.
It is why we see so many of the same large donors on both sides of the aisle. Investors hedge their bets. Entrepreneurs/ Idea people do not. They go all in. They see an end result and move inexorably toward it.
What happened tonight is critical to this mindset.
What will begin to happen is that support will begin to flea Romney. His “investors” have to now begin to hedge their bets. They are right now gauging the market, i.e. GOP voters, and realizing that they may need a better investment.
Remember, most of his campaign has been built on the “inevitability” factor. That factor is now gone. It has been leaking air for some time, but tonight that bubble was fully burst. And when you build your campaign not on ideas, but on an “electability factor” and the voters deny you that factor, what is left?
More importantly, what is left for that “insider” or “establishment” support that are not the professional GOP class? They begin to look elsewhere. They need to maximize their investments. It is why Romney’s finances are beginning to become tighter and he is struggling to continue to raise the kind of money he has for the last few years.
On a practical level, what this means is that for Romney, the “easy pickings” are gone. He is losing his ability to grossly outspend Newt and the other candidates to the level that he did in Florida, for example. More importantly, he will begin to lose voting support.
As usual, the media will be slow to pick up on this. But look for, in the days and weeks ahead, Romney’s national numbers, and then his individual state numbers, to start taking their first real hit. And how can you tell Romney is becoming increasingly desperate and realizes this himself? One only has to look at his comments today about Santorum being at the desperate end of his campaign.
This is where Newt gets it right. As I mentioned above, it is the difference between an entrepreneur/idea man, and an investor. Romney invested in the idea of being President but has never been driven with a dream of what the country SHOULD look like, or COULD look like under his administration. (Reagan drove to the nomination despite many state losses because he never lost sight of that goal, the BIG idea.)
Newt, on the other hand, has spent his entire career doing JUST that. Looking ahead 2 DECADES and imagining a Republican majority in the House, for example. He did it before.
Getting back to the practical level, as Romney bleeds support, are those voters likely to coalesce around Santorum, a candidate who manages to frequently alienate exactly those who might support him? Or to Newt, who keeps presenting the big ideas, and even more, from his position as candidate, is ALREADY driving the national conversation? I think you know my answer to that question.
I admit, I was down earlier this evening. But after looking at things carefully, I feel much better.
And what was it that Paul Begala said tonight on CNN? “...It is time for Mitt Romney to get out of the race.” It was not much earlier than this that he dropped out 4 years ago. It was just after super Tuesday when front runner John McCain already had more than 700 delegates (an important # as Romney has no where near that now)
There are alot of states yet to go, N.C., W. Virginia.....Louisiana, Texas...and many more ...A Commander never leaves the field....Here’s looking forward to a Newt Presidency !
Stephen
Newt 2012
According to that statement, we need to pin our hopes on Romney running out of money and his support cratering. At the same time we just heard today or yesterday that Adelson said he will not be sending any more money to Newt’s SuperPAC.
I think Newt’s been doing a fantastic job in the media since the last debate, but only got one more delegate than Romney did in MS and AL. If Romney never gets more than 25% of the vote in any upcoming state except Utah, then we could deny him the nomination with both Rick and Newt in the race. But that’s a strategy based on hope. I don’t see a track record or math that points to that happening. And I know Newt himself has made some arguments about delegates that are just wrong, like suggesting him and Rick might be able to get Ron Paul’s delegates at the convention.
So as of now the analysis from the Newt camp seems overly optimistic. I understand the emotional investment they have, but I’m a facts-and-figures guy. I can’t stake the future of the country and the Republican party on hope. We can plan on a strategy that lets Newt and Rick win at the convention even if the general popularity of the candidates stays the same from now on, or we can avoid making any sacrifices and hope for a Hail Mary pass, when the odds and delegate allocation rules say that decision is likely to lead to a flat-out Romney nomination by June.