Replies

The article is extremely important and 100% right based on my own analysis of the winner-take-all rules in upcoming states. This analysis is far better than mine and I endorse it wholeheartedly. They went into far more detail than I've had time to look into involving the threshold and mixed rule states, and came up with the same conclusion. That is that we have a far better chance of stopping Mitt if Newt officially suspends his campaign and endorses Rick. I say that as a longtime Newt supporter who donated money to him and to no other candidates in this primary. I feel that Mitt as the nominee would leave us with the untenable choice between voting for Mitt and destroying the last vestiges of the conservative GOP as we know it, perhaps beyond repair, or voting "present" and letting Obama destroy the country, perhaps beyond repair.

I am sending a link to this article to Newt's web site and telling him as a donor that I think he needs to back out and endorse Rick. And I will be sending Rick's web site the link and telling him he desperately needs to cut a deal with Newt, up to and including offering him the presidency if it goes to a contested convention, knowing that Rick could step into 8 years as President himself after being Newt's V.P.

Neither Newt nor Rick have ANY path to the presidency without each other's help at this point. They have a choice, cut a deal now and possibly win the nomination, or keep holding out for everything and likely end up losing everything in the end.

Do not think that all the Newt votes will go to Santorum. THEY WILL NOT!!!

Did you even read the article? It's premised on 56% of Newt's votes going to Rick. I think if Rick announced Newt as his V.P., who he has said at least twice before he would consider, then I think Rick could get far more of Newt's votes than that.

Here is how many delegates go with each of the article's categories. Newt is endangering over 70% of them by staying in the race:

Gingrich's Presence Will Help Romney: 707

Gingrich's Presence Will Likely Help Romney: 231

Gingrich's Presence will Hurt Romney: 238

Not mentioned: 134 (Missouri, Puerto Rico, D.C., Utah)

On the not mentions, I'd put three into a new category: Likely non-factor: Missouri: Hurt Santorum-By splitting conservative votes in Caucus could allow Romney and Paul delegates to get elected. These aren't proportional contests. These are contests to elect the people who elect the delegates. If conservatives split their votes, it'll allow Romney and Paul to pick up delegates. Utah: Gingrich can neither hurt nor help Santorum there. The primary went 90% for Romney in 2008 and is winner-take-all, so even if Romney drops to 70%, he'll get all the delegates. District of Columbia: Newt is on the ballot, Santorum isn't on the ballot, so Newt could in theory hurt ROmney. The problem is that DC tends to be an establishment town and therefore a Romney town. It's also winner-take-all. In theory, Newt could win it, but in practice, it's tough to foresee a conservative taking DC. It went 65% for John McCain. Puerto Rico: Gingrich should be a non-factor as are most candidates who don't campaign in Puerto Rico. Traditionally not campaigning candidates get somewhere between 1 and 5% of the vote. If either Santorum or Romney get 50% of the vote, Gingrich will have not factored. However, if one candidate is very close to 50%, he may play a role. If the total is something something like Santorum 48%, Romney 44%, with Gingrich we can conclude that Gingrich cost Santorum a majority which would have given him all the delegates. If it's more like Romney 49%, Santorum 45%, then we can say Newt hurt Romney. Both are somewhat unlikely scenarios, so I'll leave it along with the other three at non-factor. Did you even read the article? It's premised on 56% of Newt's votes going to Rick. I think if Rick announced Newt as his V.P., who he has said at least twice before he would consider, then I think Rick could get far more of Newt's votes than that. Actually, I suspect a lot of folks have been responding to this article without reading it.

It might be helpful if you're able to do this, to show a simple delegate count (or range of counts) projection between Romney, Santorum, Newt, and maybe Paul if it matters (headed by how many delegates needed for the nomination):

Number of delegates needed to win nomination:______

1) Best case for Newt (and Santorum) if Newt DOESN'T throw in with Santorum:
Romney
Santorum
Gingrich

2) Likely case for Newt (and Santorum) if Newt DOESN'T throw in with Santorum:
Romney
Santorum
Gingrich

3) Likely case for Santorum if Newt DOES throw in with Santorum:
Romney
Santorum

4) Likely case for Santorum if Santorum NAMES NEWT AS VP and Newt accepts:
Romney
Santorum

You could very well be right. One statement you made was:

I think if Rick announced Newt as his V.P., who he has said at least twice before he would consider, then I think Rick could get far more of Newt's votes than that.

He might get the nod, but he'd lose the GE. We need a fresh face in the VP spot. People are weary of Kook-Daddy and the Three Stooges. And, we need Marco Rubio in the VP spot to cut into Obama's Hispanic vote and carry Florida. Whoever wins Florida, wins the White House. We'll just have to wait and see.