You are assuming Santorum gets a majority of Newt’s votes. A lot of people don’t support Santorum because they are uneasy with the religious right, but they might support Newt because he is a little more populist on social issues. It might be closer than you think.
No, I don’t think the scenarios I saw the other night by John King were assuming all Newt votes went to Rick. He was fairly generous with Rick winning some of the big contests that are potentials for him, but the point was to show how different the scenario if Newt is still in it. It helps Romney get the delegates before the convention. ENOUGH of Newt’s votes will go to Santorum.
He used CNN’s very cool graphic touch screen delegate map, which was very easy to follow.