Newt said on Greta last night that if Romney is within 50 delegates of 1,144, there won't be a contested convention. He said he'd need to be about 100-150 delegates short to make that happen. He may be considering Ron Paul's delegates and the 100-150 that are unpledged state party members.
If Gingrich bows out now and the states go the way they are supposed to, Romney would be somewhere around 1000-1040 delegates.
This doesn’t take into effect the massive amount of momentum Santorum would get from the May Calendar alone. On April 24, PA, DE, NY, CT, and RI. If Santorum scores an expected victory in PA, an upset victory in DE (if O’Donnell can win with Tea Party support its possible) and win 6-7 Congressional districts in NY, it would push him into huge momentum going into May, where he’d be the favorite in virtually every state (KY, WV, NC, AR, TX, NE, IN, and OR.
Except OR, all are likely wins for Santorum. This means that Romney could very well limp to the June 5 primaries in CA, NJ, NM, SD, and MT with Santorum having enough momentum to win SD, MT, and at least 20-25 Congressional districts in CA. This would keep Romney at least under 1,050.
However, if Newt stays in, the projected number I’m seeing and what looks most likely is Romney gets to around 1,177 on June 19. That’s because Newt is letting Romney win more delegates than Romney normally would, like what happened in OK, AL, and MS. If this repeats across the other favorable non-Romney states, it’s impossible to stop him. The only way Newt helps Santorum by staying in is if he campaigns directly for Romney’s supporters (affluent, women, seniors, Hispanics), four categories Newt has done horrendous in.
I’ve been running the numbes on my IL simulation. Turnout will be key. Santorum needs to do well in mid and downstate, but like IA, the population of this area as steadily decreased, although Northern IL hasn’t increased by very much. IL has 102 counties. Santorum probably has to win the 50 or so small counties by anywhere from 500-1000 votes to offset Chicago (Cook), Lake, Northern IL suburbia, Springfield, the Quads, and along the MO border. Even with Newt getting only 6%, it may swing the state to Romney if it’s close, though I’m still not sure there are enough conservative voters in IL to make a difference. It is hard to tell what Romney’s true support in IL is off of his 2008 primary showing because by that time, many conservatives were voting for Romney to stop McCain.