The problem is that, with the current dynamic, Romney will win the nomination. The strategy to “keep him from winning” isn’t likely to succeed, because as he gets closer and it’s clear nobody else can actually win, and if the race stays static, the general population of GOP voters will drift toward the “inevitable winner” Romney, giving him larger and larger victories.
Something needs to change the dynamic. If say Gingrich dropped out, there would be a shift toward Santorum. He would then do a LOT better in the next contests. It would be THAT difference, with Santorum actually winning a couple of states decisively, that would then make that general GOP electorate say — hey, maybe Santorum is the guy we want to drift toward.
Thus, instead of Romney getting the “whatever” votes, Santorum gets them, as his polling numbers shoot up and Romney stays at 30%.
See, people keep assuming that if Romney stays at 35% he’ll collect enough to win, but the point is that he benefits from being the “frontrunner”, and if we had weeks go by where Santorum took more delegates than Romney week after week, and was winning 50+% of the vote, and Romney was “mired” at 35-40%, people would just switch to Santorum.
The same might be true for Gingrich; I don’t think so, because that was what was HAPPENING with South Carolina, but he collapsed after that, and I don’t see him getting a 2nd chance.
Some people say Santorum got a 2nd chance, but he didn’t. He won Iowa, but he wasn’t polling 1st nationally when he did so, Iowa was simply a one-off win because of his camping in Iowa. It wasn’t until Newt fell apart in Florida and Nevada that people jumped to Santorum. But they haven’t left him, he’s still essentially tied with Romney nationally, and now has a longer time period in that position then ANY of the other candidates who briefly held that slot.
Elections are fluid, and move with public perception, and I don’t see the general Republican electorate liking the perception of a “we just want to stop Romney and leave things confused in the convention”. What they DO want is a not-Romney who looks like they COULD win if people just decided he could win.
Meaning there are a LOT of voters sitting in their houses, and they are thinking “Santorum looks like he might win, I will vote for him instead of Romney”. Once we have enough people thinking that, Santorum WILL win.
I would rather have had Gingrich be this person, back in January. He so looked like it for a little while, but even with Santorum doing nothing in Florida, Gingrich simply couldn’t hold up under the attacks. Santorum has done much better in that regard, getting plastered 5-1 in Michigan, and 12-1 in Ohio, and yet he’s still winning races, even in 3-way contests in the south with Gingrich splitting large amounts of the conservative vote.
Santorum has never endured the hammering Newt got from Mitt and his PAC in Fla ($2million/day for 10 days) and Newt still pulled over 30% of the vote and won a majority of the congressional districts. Again it was Santorum at the bottom of the pile and all the voters had left. Do not be fooled. If Newt is dispatched from this primary, Mitt and his machine will roll over Santorum.
Newt is not "splitting" the vote. Newt is keeping his supporters onboard and protecting the conservative flank.