most of the above states are NE Romney states, where he wins either a 2 or 3 man race. Rick might take his home state of PA, but remember he lost his re-election there by 18 points.
Rick could win in TX, WV and WI.
But, the math shows improbable path to Rick reaching 1144.
The goal must be to stop Mitt from getting to 1144 before the convention.
But, the math shows improbable path to Rick reaching 1144.
It's all but impossible for Rick to get there, but unless we stop vote-splitting, it's improbable that we stop Romney from getting there. Vote-splitting in the below helps Romney for sure and we can't afford to let him have ANY extra delegates. He's gotta be a couple hundred south of 1,144 to stop Ron Paul or the unbound party members putting him over the top. A single one-on-one race in the below states could mean moving maybe 100-250 delegates from Romney to us.
Wisconsin
Illinois
Pennsylvania
West Virginia
Connecticut
Texas
California
The thing is, a conservative must win one of IL, NY, and CA; two out of the three would be optimal. Very important in this is at least denying Romney a majority in NY, because then it is proportional for 34 at large delegates (2 delegates for the winner of each CD). It is winner-take-all if one candidate gets 50%+1. Santorum was massively ahead in PA (46%) as of the last poll, and if he gets a majority, he should take all or almost all of the delegates given the way PA allocates it delegates (direct election by CD).
A lot of proportional states from here on out go winner-take-all if one candidate gets a certain percentage. For instance, Arkansas only allots 1 delegate to every candidate over 15%. However, the rules say that if one candidate gets a majority of the statewide vote, every other delegates goes to the winner, effectively making it a “winner-take-almost-all” in a one-on-one race. Also, some are WTA-CD and proportional statewide, like CT and KY.
NC delegate rules are ambiguous: The chairman is supposed to allocate the delegates in a way that reflects the “division of the primary vote.” If one candidate gets a large majority (say, 60%), it is easy to see the chairman interpreting the rule to mean WTA since he could argue that’s the “will of the primary voters,” especially if he backs that candidate. I could see that one going to court should it make a difference and the delegates are allocated WTA, but that might be an incentive to not do that.
I think the whole dynamic really comes down to IL next week, which is a direct election by CD and state convention for at large delegates. If Rick wins IL, and his voters faithfully vote for his delegates, he should win a lion’s share. If he can pull that off (big if, I know), the whole dynamic changes as conservatives coalesce and Romney loses in states he was expected to win big.
The advantage is undeniably Romney’s at this point, but the dynamics of the race change dramatically if conservatives rally around Santorum and start winning where the moderate is supposed to have the advantage. Conservatives make up a commanding majority of the vote in GOP primaries outside of a couple of New England states like MA, so don’t count out states like CA and IL swinging in favor of Santorum.
My source: thegreenpapers.com