Look, Newt knows fully well that when people can and do hear his plans and message of what he intends to do they will rally for him...the problem is the media and all he faces who are opposing him are getting in the way of Newt being heard. The Rep. Party Elites are behind keeping Newt at bay as well as the Obama Machine and Romney Machine...the recognize fully if Newt gets in heads are going to roll....Newt's made no secret about this. So he's up against formidable forces at every side....that's why we pray and trust that God will hear our Prayers and open the red sea once again!!!!!
I think he's also aware of the cost of his "baggage." While he is confident he can persuade many people, he also knows that not only are quite a few firmly aligned against him, many others won't hear his message, or won't believe it, so will either sit it out or vote for an opponent. IOW, I think he has a realistic outlook. He knows negative ads worked (he described bouncing back from 5 million dollars of them in Iowa, and 20 million in FL).
One thing I like is his determination to have his message heard at the convention. The GOPe is messing with fire, by cutting against him and appearing to reject his proposals while doing so.