Posted on 03/12/2012 7:52:34 AM PDT by VinL
Newt Gingrich leads the Alabama Republican presidential primary with 34%. Gingrich is followed by Mitt Romney with 31%, Rick Santorum with 24%, and Ron Paul with 6%.
Gingrich leads Romney 39% to 30% among self-identified Republicans, followed by Santorum with 23% and Paul with 3%. Among self-identified independents and Democrats, Romney leads with 33%, followed by Santorum with 28%, Gingrich with 17%, and Paul with 15%.
Gingrich leads Romney 34% to 31% among likely Republican primary voters saying they will definitely vote in the March 6 primary, followed by Santorum with 25% and Paul with 5%. Gingrich leads Romney 37% to 29% among those saying they will probably vote, followed by Santorum with 19% and Paul with 8%.
Gingrich leads with 54% among likely Republican primary voters saying they are supporters of the Tea Party, followed by Santorum with 23%, Romney with 20%, and Paul with 1%. Among likely primary voters saying they are not supporters of the Tea Party or are undecided about the Tea Party, Romney leads with 41%, followed by Santorum with 25%, Gingrich with 16%, and Paul with 10%.
Gingrich leads among men with 31%, followed by Romney and Santorum with 29% each and Paul with 6%. Gingrich leads Romney 38% to 32% among women, followed by Santorum with 19% and Paul with 5%.... About this Survey -
Survey Sponsor: American Research Group, Inc.
The American Research Group has been conducting surveys of voters since 1985.
Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Republican primary voters living in Alabama (473 self-identified Republicans, 66 self-identified independents, and 61 self-identified Democrats).
Sample Dates: March 9-11, 2012
Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split. An "*" in the tables indicates responses of less than 1/2 of 1 percent.
Tables and Internals at link
Go Newt!
I have been leaning Newt ever since the Cain train derailed, but will admit I was beginning to consider voting for Santorum if he looked to be the one to beat Romney here in Alabama.
I am happy to see the latest round of polls putting Gingrich in the lead, and my family will be delivering 5 votes for NEWTonium tomorrow.
It will so nice to actually vote FOR Newt instead of AGAINST Romney which is where it looked to be heading a week ago.
Newt would slice and dice Obama!
Good for you. I hope many folks break late for Newt the way you have. And if Newt can get two firsts or a first and second tomorrow, that gives him mo heading into Texas.
Not sure I like his strategy, but it is what it is at this point.
And if Newt can get two firsts or a first and second tomorrow, that gives him mo heading into Texas.
A lot of water to pass under the bridge before Texas votes on May 29, 2012.
I know, I didn’t say I liked the strategy, only that’s what it was.
and Obama would slice and dice Romney
all he has to do is ask Mittens if he's come on his White Horse to remove the "curse of Cain" from the WH...to replace a "black and loathesome" president with a "white and delightsome" god...and watch Romney's eyes spin like cherries in a slot machine
According to the latest polls (ARG & PPP) Tuesday’s going to be a long night, with Newt and Romney in a virtual tie in Mississippi, and Newt slightly ahead in Alabama. Looks like it will come down to the wire, but Newt definitely still has a pulse. Go, Newt!
GO NEWT!
Yeah!!
Ok, Santorum voters ...you’ve had your turns in many other states. Your guy is NOT going to win this. Come on over and let’s put Newt over the top. This will have the double effect of pushing out Willard!!
PLEASE!
That scenario only works for Newt supporters. (Trojan Horse) To entice us to vote for Santo, but when the situation reverses, they are no where to be found.
Besides, Newt has qualified for all the remaining states, while Santo too busy talking about himself and failed to get in on time, in 4 of the remaining states.
“Santorum puppies”
Not sure how good of puppies they are. They never build Santorum up, they never critize Mittens. Its just Newt bad, Newt very bad.
GOTV in AL & MS. Newt need them 90 delegates.
Now, this poll is looking more like it, though I’ll be surprised if Newt only scores a 3% victory over Willard in Alabama. Here in South Carolina, Newt whipped him by 12%, and Alabama is more conservative, more oriented toward the Southern politics that is Newt’s forte and Willard’s downfall, and doubtlessly takes an even dimmer view of Mormonism.
But that’s why the GOP-E and RINO media are pushing the meme that “only Romney can beat Obama.” That’s their ploy to get the ultra-conservatives on board. They’re hoping their hatred of Obama trumps their preference for the conservative candidate. I doubt it will work well enough to make Romney the winner here, but it explains why his numbers are higher than they ought to be.
Problem here is Alabama becomes WINNER-TAKE-ALL if the winner gets over 50% of the vote. So if this was a 2-man race, Romney could be shut out of delegates. Other problem is that the district delegates only go to the TOP TWO winners. So if Santorum places 3rd, he won’t get any district delegates. He will get a portion of the statewide delegates as long as he gets over 20% of the vote.
At least Paul will be shut out as he was in OK, TN and GA.
Newt’s strategy can’t work unless Santorum drops out. And Santorum’s strategy can’t win unless Newt drops out. Short of Romney being caught in bed with a dead woman or a live man, the two-man conservative vote-splitting among the 14 or so states with some variation of winner-take-all voting (as Alabama has), will cause Romney to either win outright or be so close that a deal with Ron Paul or the GOP-E arm-twisting a few unbound delegates will hand him the win. Romney’s limping to the finish line but he’s getting there short of a game-changing strategy. I’m sure the RINOs will relentlessly spin this as Southern “birthers” going against the Mormon Romney so as to avoid denting his momentum with non-Southern state voters.
With winner take all states coming up soon, I do not agree with you necessarily on that, but I do get your point.
After Tuesday, 14 out of 27 have some form of winner-take-all. And Newt or Rick would probably benefit in 7 of those by having a 2-man-1-nutcase (Paul) race.
That’s because either the candidate who gets 50% can shut out the other candidates from any delegates, or the candidate who gets a plurality (could be as low as 26% with 4 guys in the race) is winner-take-all. This is either by state or by district.
For instance, IL, PA and WV are direct delegate elections, which function as plurality winner-take-all by district (whichever delegates get the most votes in each district win the entire district, hence they can win a district with 26%).
PR, UT, DE and DC are pure winner-take-all contests on the whole and it’s true Romney will probably win those no matter who’s running against him.
WI, MD, CT, CA, NJ are all partial WTA, some by district. That means each district is its own contest. And Newt and Rick can split the vote in any district and give Romney a win if Romney gets a mere plurality. It is a mathematical certainty that Romney will do better in those states if Newt and Rick stay in.
TX and NY appear to be a mix of winner-take-all by district, state and based on a 50% threshold. So if we were down to one conservative, we lessen the chance Romney can win with a small plurality and raise the chance we can shut him out by getting over 50%.
Your post is very informative, and you are up on the nuances of “winner take all” more than I am. I will say this though - this is how the two candidates are looking at it:
Newt: win 1 or 2 tomorrow, and come in 2nd in the one he loses if he does lose, and beat RS fairly badly in both: then his narrative will be that he’s now taken every blow the MSM and Romney and his PAC and the GOP establishment can throw, and he survived, and now he’s the clear alternative.
Rick: beat Newt in one of two tomorrow, whether or not he wins, and claim he’s the alternative due to total states won and sustained his momentum for quite a while now.
Reality: Newt is likely to beat RS tomorrow, but not sure if by much. Likely that their raw vote total will be almost identical after tomorrow.
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