Posted on 03/10/2012 2:34:12 PM PST by God-fear-republican
From http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html
Analyzing the delegate counts for all candidates so far, I come up with the following very interesting and encouraging statistics (including Kansas today):
In the states that Newt is non-factor meaning Newt got zero delegate, Romney got 305 and Santorum got 71.
In the states that Newt got at least 1 delegate or higher, Romney got 93, Santorum and Newt combined got 204.
So you can see, with "Newt factor", Romney only get 93 or about 1/3 or 33% total delegates.
But when Newt was not in the picture for some reasons, Romney got 80% delegates.
Up to now, Romney got 437, Santorum 182, Newt 117 according to Real Clear Politics (including super-delegates and others)
The break-down of the remaining delegates are 152 winner-take-all; 58 at convention, and 1064 proportional.
Assuming Romney will win all winner-take-all and get only 1/3 of the proportional, he will pick up 507 delegates. The total Romney's delegates will be 507 + 437 = 944 delegates (excluding 58 convention delegates).
And Santorum and Newt combined will get total of 1008 delegates.
DOES ANYONE STILL WANT NEWT TO QUIT NOW?!!!
I still feel good about defeating pro-same-sex-marriage, pro-abortion, pro-Romneycare Romney!
DON'T LISTEN TO THE ENEMY CALLING NEWT TO GET OUT!
Reference: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html
However, it IS fair to assume Santorum supporters would flip to Gingrich.
By “THE ENEMY”, I mean MSM and elite republicans. Santorum supporters are our friends and allies.
I hope not. I like both camps stay where they are meaning both Santorum and Newt numbers remain unchanged for my theory to work.
The point here is that when our conservative base was motivated by Newt campaigning with speeches and ideas, they came out to vote and more saw Romney negatively I guess. I might call it Newt factor or boredom factor. :-)
YOU'RE RIGHT!
GO NEWT!
If one can’t make the assumption in one case, it can’t be made in the other case either. Both candidates have a similar demographic of followers.
The enemy (MSM, elites) will never support for Newt anyway. If you talk about Santorum’s supporters, they are not my enemies (see my clarification above), they are my patriots, and I encourage them to stay their course for they don’t have to jump ship to deny Romney the nomination.
We need to go to brokered convention! Please cool your hot heads, don’t tear each other apart.
Lots of us have been saying it - Newt withdrawing helps Romney.
Thanks for the data showing it.
When Newt was not a factor (getting zero delegate), the undecided voters tended to vote for Romney possibly because he targeted his only remaining opponent Santorum with his false ads or because the voters wanted to vote for the candidate who more likely to defeat Obama in the general election. You have to remember these undecided candidates they are not motivated by ideology that much.
With Newt in the ring, Romney had to divide dirty ads to both Santorum and Newt. This tactics turned off voters from Romney. And Newt helped the undecided but forgiving voters came out and vote. You see where Newt did well, the total votes counts were much higher.
Not some reasons. Santorum is not running a strong campaign in states where Romney is strong. He is running a strong campaign in states where Newt is strong so that the anti-Romney vote is split and he gets some of it as well.
The original plan seems to have been a Romney/Santorum ticket with Santorum quitting after SC or FL, but now it is heading to a point where the establishment can pretend that Santorum is a reluctant VP candidate as a result of a brokered convention and so we must all come together and support a Romney/Santorum ticket.
Do you really,, honestly believe at Rick Santorum can beat Obama?
Pointless speculation - no one is getting out until they run out of money. Period.
“Pointless speculation - no one is getting out until they run out of money. Period.”
Amen. Newt was dead last to Herman Cain, palin, Ron paul 5 months ago. As long as he can pay for the campaign, he’s in.
I believe that a turnip could beat Obama.
It is not pointless speculation. I would call it factual speculation. I agree with you, no one should get out.
I posted this analysis because our base appears depressed or discouraged (just read the posts before mine).
I am tired of politics, my favorite subject these days is spiritual reading or theology.
But if it is necessary, I will jump in the discussion again, but prefer not to.
Good-bye!
NO! Santorum can’t beat Obama. Newt said so and I agree with him. Newt reminds General Patton. Brilliant warfare tactician!
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