Posted on 03/08/2012 12:40:31 PM PST by SeekAndFind
One of the reasons to be skeptical that Rick Santorum could win the Republican nomination is that we now have a pretty good idea of how the vote will play out from state to state — and the coalition that he is building seems short of a majority.
It is not that Mr. Santorum’s delegate deficit is mathematically insurmountable. But he’s behind, and he is very unlikely to win states like New Jersey and California that either have a lot of delegates or use winner-take-all rules to award them. That might not leave enough fertile opportunities for him to gain delegates. If you go through the states one by one and make some reasonably optimistic assumptions about how Mr. Santorum might perform in each one based on their demographics, and then apply the delegate rules in each state, you’ll find it very challenging to come up with a plan in which he wins a majority of delegates, let alone a plurality of them.
So what Mr. Santorum needs instead is some kind of change in the underlying conditions of the race. Not just one where he starts to win marginal states (say, Illinois and Wisconsin) by a point or two instead of lose them (as he did in Michigan and Ohio). That doesn’t actually make all that much difference in the delegate math. He needs something more fundamental than that.
There is one obvious candidate: what if Newt Gingrich were to drop out of the race? This is hardly so far-fetched. Mr. Gingrich had a poor Super Tuesday, and his advisers have said that Mississippi and Alabama, which vote next Tuesday, are “must-wins” for him. Indeed, the main competition in these states might be between Mr. Santorum and Mr. Gingrich, with Mr. Romney likely to finish in third place
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...
There has always been a huge warning sign in what I see in Santorum. To me, he is like a combination of Elmer Gantry and Jimmy Carter snd no matter how hard I try, I cannot shake that image of him.
Even his campaign reminds me of a P.T. Barnum operation, with Ring Master Rick and his troupe of Flying Santorums, all traveling at the expense of his campaign supporters, and performing for the rubes across the countryside.
I have no doubt that when the chips are down, Rick will sell out his supporters and form a ticket with Romney. It means nothing to him that most of his supporters are vehemently against a Romney Presidency, because it has never been about them, it has Always been about Rick.
Like the shifty eyed snake oil seller he is, he will give his family values speech, tell them they must take one for the team, and like good little lemmings they will fall for it and run to the polls for Rick, convinced that his alliance with Mitt must, after all, be a Holy one.
Like P.T, Barnum said, “There’s a sucker born every minute”. Rick is counting on it.
For me, the important thing is NOT who originally had the idea but WHAT POLICIES he supports.
FOR INSTANCE,
Who cares if Newt originally thought of the repeal of the EPA rule on CO2 emissions that have already shut down six power plants and furlowed 500 workers.
Who cares if Newt originally thought of ordering a review of all regulations, making sure these regulations use sound science and common-sense cost benefit analysis.
THE IMPORTANT THING IS SANTORUM SUPPORTS THE RIGHT POLICIES FOR THIS COUNTRY EVEN IF THE IDEAS WERE NOT ORIGINALLY HIS.
Take Paul Ryan’s Medicare reform plan, those were his ideas. Santorum is on record as publicly supporting the plan ( and the plan isn’t his to begin with ). Why would we hold it against him if he did?
This isn’t a college essay where plagiarism is a no-no, this is about IDEAS THAT NEED TO BE IMPLEMENTED FOR THE GOOD OF THIS COUNTRY.
I don’t care who rips off whose ideas, as long as they are the right ones that will be good for this country.
I’ll be against Santorum only if he is on record as opposing fiscal policies that are good for this country, but not until.
So please Rick, take as many good policy ideas from others as much as you want. I don’t care if they were originally your own or not. JUST IMPLEMENT THEM.
My opinion is that Gingrich and Santorum represent different factions of the conservative vote, and that the overlap is much less than most FR observers think. A Gingrich droput would probably send more voters to Romney or Paul than to Santorum.
RE: I have no doubt that when the chips are down, Rick will sell out his supporters and form a ticket with Romney
There have been many FReepers who have observed that Ron Paul has NEVER attacked Romney even as he has attacked every other candidate from the time Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann were still campaigning.
The reason? They have formed a mutual agreement for Romney to choose Ron’s son — RAND PAUL to be his VP.
So, forget Santorum being the VP, two candidates from the Northeast ain’t gonna help the ticket.
Romney needs a Southerner and Rand Paul looks like he fits the bill.
“...Honestly I’m not sure Romney will still be in the race in June. He raised $11 million last month but he spent a lot more than that.”
Your lips to God’s ear!
I have been researching something that I found on The Ulstermans Report, a casual remark dropped by a Wall Street Insider. I will send it to you via private mail.
the other scary thing, Santorum hasn’t even begun to be vetted, there’s barely been one layer pulled away. And it is not going to be pretty.
The major chasm between Newt and santorum supporters - Newt’s supporters know about his sins, his baggage, his missteps. they forgive him, and understand how the work of Christ changes a man. Most, if not all, of santorum supporters haven’t moved beyond believing he is God’s man, a principled conservative with character, whose worst sin is jaywalking. by the time Santorum gets vetted, it will be too late, and he will go down, leaving guess who?
This was the dynamic of 2008 for the dems, people were so blinded by a young unvetted politician, with a little senatorial experience, who spoke their language, and no amount of talking could get them to deal with reality.
I think Mitt is going to need Rick’s delegates and vice versa. PA and Mass are very different in their political demographics. Rick appeals to the Bible Belt that doesn’t support Mitt.
Gingrich is pro-life and pro-2nd Amendment. The only difference I can tell is that certain folks think Gingrich is pig for committing adultery, which they cannot forgive, and ignore some of the crapola Santorum had done that is NOT pro-life!
Go figure! I believe the MSM has had a huge impact on this election. The liberals/progressives fear, really truly fear Gingrich, so he is getting more negative exposure by the Meida than Santorum ever will receive.
I did go to newt.org His ideas are generic ideas that every candidate in this race used one or more of......and Newt did not invent them. For Instance: How is Rick stealling Newts ideas? There budgets are so different?
Rick: If elected, Santorum pledges to cut $5 trillion in federal spending over 5 years.
He plans to freeze spending for 5 years on defense as well as on social programs like Medicaid, Housing, Education, Job Training, and Food Stamps.
He wants to pass a Balanced Budget Amendment to the Constitution, which would cap government spending at 18% of GDP. This would force the President and Congress to balance the budget like Governors do.
Santorum believes in a return to the Reagan era pro-growth tax rate. He wants to simplify personal income taxes by cutting the number of tax rates to just two, 10% and 28%.
He plans to simplify the tax code, reduce overall taxes by eliminating the Estate Tax, and cut middle income taxes by eliminating the Alternative Minimum Tax.
He wants to reduce taxes for families by tripling the personal deduction for each child and by eliminating marriage tax penalties.
He has pledged to cut the corporate income tax rate in half, from 33.5% to 17.5%.
New: Stop the 2013 tax increases to promote stability in the economy. Job creation improved after Congress extended tax relief for two years in December. We should make the rates permanent.
Make the United States the most desirable location for new business investment through a bold series of tax cuts, including: Eliminating the capital gains tax to make American entrepreneurs more competitive against those in other countries; Dramatically reducing the corporate income tax (among highest in the world) to 12.5%; Allowing for 100% expensing of new equipment to spur innovation and American manufacturing; Ending the death tax permanently.
Move toward an optional flat tax of 15% that would allow Americans the freedom to choose to file their taxes on a postcard, saving hundreds of billions in unnecessary costs each year. This optional flat tax system will preserve deductions on charitable giving and home ownership, and create a new personal deduction of $12,000 for every American. This deduction is well above the current poverty level, ensuring that this new system does not unfairly target the poor.
Strengthen the dollar by returning to the Reagan-era monetary policies that stopped runaway inflation and reforming the Federal Reserve to promote transparency.
Remove obstacles to job creation imposed by destructive and ineffective regulations, programs and bureaucracies. Steps include: Repealing the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, which did nothing to prevent the financial crisis and is holding companies back from making new investments in the U.S; Repealing the Community Reinvestment Act, the abuse of which helped cause the financial crisis; Repealing the Dodd-Frank Law which is killing small independent banks, crippling loans to small businesses and crippling home sales; Breaking up Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, moving their smaller successors off government guarantees and into the free market; Replacing the Environmental Protection Agency with an Environmental Solutions Agency that works collaboratively with local government and industry to achieve better results; and Modernizing the Food and Drug Administration to get lifesaving medicines and technologies to patients faster.
Implement an American energy policy that removes obstacles to responsible energy development and creates jobs in the United States.
Balance the budget by growing the economy, controlling spending, implementing money saving reforms, and replacing destructive policies and regulatory agencies with new approaches.
Repeal and replace Obamacare with a pro-jobs, pro-responsibility health plan that puts doctors and patients in charge of health decisions instead of bureaucrats.
Fundamental reform of entitlement programs with the advice and help of the American people. Read an extended white paper on this here.
Example of Newt’s orginal ideas?
It is so true that we have a similar dynamic with Santorum and Obama supporters. It’s like they are mesmerized. They do not want to hear anything that might take some of the polish off their Chosen One. The information was available for anyone that wanted to examine it in 2008, the information is available on Santorum as well, but there are none so blind as those who Will Not see.
uh, you copied and pasted a generic abbreviated brochure form of his ideas - brief and general so as not to be overwhelming. Newt has written papers on all his positions, books on some of them, documentaries on others, position and policy analysis summaries on most of them.
Don’t do that. At least be intellectually honest with others if you can’t be with yourself.
as for the budget, Santorum unveiled a plan, which was almost universally panned and got a D+ from the WSJ. he went back, rewrote it, and now gets a higher grade. he rewrote it by taking most of Newt’s ideas that were there BEFORE the campaign. No more debate. Time is short. some people won’t see no matter how much you shine the light.
Note to all Newt and Santorum supporters. The romney supporters are sitting back smiling while we two go at it. Maybe that is what all this is about. Divide and conquer. I remember a time when we Santorum supporters said we would support Newt if RIck did not make it and Newt supporters would support Rick.
You told me to go to Newt.org and that is where I got this info. So we’re suppose to read Newts papers and see his documentaries.....the funny thing about this is Newt is my second choice. I don’t have a big problem with him, only his supporter who want to bully people into thinking THEIR way. Just like the establishment. I have things that are more important to me than money, that is why I chose RIck. This is still the US right?
“How Would Santorum Do Without Gingrich?”
Better question. How would Gingrich do without Romney?
It would take a library to keep a record of all of Newt’s original ideas and accomplishments. One of the first was that we could have a conservative Congress. He spearheaded the effort and won the first Republican Congress in 40 years with his “Contract with America”.
I can’t think of another living American who has done as much as Newt Gingrich for the cause of conservatism. Rush, Hannity, Michele Bachman and Gov. Palin, to name just a few, agree.
What’s more important than money, helping reelect Obama by putting up a weak candidate who will lose to him in the debates and be demonized as a lightweight zealot like Christine O’Donnell was? Too bad, it would have been great to have a candidate like Newt in the White House who has a 98.6% pro-life rating and signed a pledge to support an anti-same sex marriage constitutional amendment.
That’s great that Newt has done so much. He isn’t fighting for what is important to me and lots of voters first. Newt is today, I believe a good man, but, I am looking for something else first & Newt is my second choice. Romney comes in zero.
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