Posted on 03/08/2012 12:40:31 PM PST by SeekAndFind
One of the reasons to be skeptical that Rick Santorum could win the Republican nomination is that we now have a pretty good idea of how the vote will play out from state to state — and the coalition that he is building seems short of a majority.
It is not that Mr. Santorum’s delegate deficit is mathematically insurmountable. But he’s behind, and he is very unlikely to win states like New Jersey and California that either have a lot of delegates or use winner-take-all rules to award them. That might not leave enough fertile opportunities for him to gain delegates. If you go through the states one by one and make some reasonably optimistic assumptions about how Mr. Santorum might perform in each one based on their demographics, and then apply the delegate rules in each state, you’ll find it very challenging to come up with a plan in which he wins a majority of delegates, let alone a plurality of them.
So what Mr. Santorum needs instead is some kind of change in the underlying conditions of the race. Not just one where he starts to win marginal states (say, Illinois and Wisconsin) by a point or two instead of lose them (as he did in Michigan and Ohio). That doesn’t actually make all that much difference in the delegate math. He needs something more fundamental than that.
There is one obvious candidate: what if Newt Gingrich were to drop out of the race? This is hardly so far-fetched. Mr. Gingrich had a poor Super Tuesday, and his advisers have said that Mississippi and Alabama, which vote next Tuesday, are “must-wins” for him. Indeed, the main competition in these states might be between Mr. Santorum and Mr. Gingrich, with Mr. Romney likely to finish in third place
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...
Thirteen is many? (I assume you are counting hard only.) Over the next few weeks, Minnesota, Colorado, Missouri, and Iowa will select the hard delegates. Santorum is better placed for these to make up the difference. Santorum is 39 ahead on soft count. Together, they do not match Romney.
Guys,
Look at the remaining states. I would argue that Romney can’t win in over half of them no matter how much carpet bombing he does. I think sometimes we get down because we’re not looking at the big picture.
I would argue that Romney can’t win the following states no matter what:
Alabama, Mississippi, Missouri, Louisiana, Texas, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, West Virginia, Nebraska, Arkansas, Kentucky, New Mexico, South Dakota.
Theses states are toss ups:
Wisconsin, Indiana, California, Montana, Kansas (only because it is on Saturday)
Romney probable:
Hawaii, Illinois, D.C, Maryland, Delaware, New York, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Utah
The base hates Romeny and he gets worse as time goes on. Honestly I’m not sure Romney will still be in the race in June. He raised $11 million last month but he spent a lot more than that.
The soft delegates for Santorum likely will stay with Santorum if he stays in the Race.
I despise Romney.
You haven't been paying attention. Romney solely focused on Santorum in both Michigan and Ohio, outspending him 12-1 in Ohio, and still barely won both states.
When Romney attacked Gingrich in Florida, Newt was destroyed. Worse, he couldn't control his rage at Romney's attacks and fell apart in a debate in Florida.
How would Gingrich do without Santorum?
If Newt drops out, I ain’t supporting Father Ricky. I go over to Mitt.
Yeah, right. Santorum pushed for welfare reform and opposed then individual insurance mandate even while other conservatives were pushing it back in the 1990s.He has 88% career rating from the ACU, which is only two percent less than Newt.
It's this sort of stupid that is helping Romney win the nomination.
RE: If Newt drops out, I ain’t supporting Father Ricky. I go over to Mitt.
You actually believe Mitt would be a better president than Rick?
Rick is ahead of Newt in national polls by 13.3 points.
Rick Santorum is our best last chance to get rid of Romney.
RE: The man has no ideas, an unlikeable persona
1) Unlikeable person — WOMEN actually vote for him more than men.
As for unlikeable, if so, why is he AHEAD of Newt? Doesn’t that make Newt even more unlikeable
2) As for having no ideas, did you actually READ his policy proposals?
See here:
http://www.ricksantorum.com/truth
Rick Santorum’s First 100 Days Economic Freedom Agenda
1) UNLEASH AMERICA’S ENERGY: I’ll approve the Keystone Pipeline for jobs and energy security. I’ll sign an order unleashing America’s domestic energy production without picking winners and losers on Day One. I’ll allow states to choose where they want to explore for oil and natural gas and to set their own regulations for hydrofracturing.
2) STOP JOB KILLING REGULATIONS: I’ll eliminate all regulations promulgated by the Obama Administration which have an economic burden over $100 million dollars, on Day One, including repeal of the EPA rule on CO2 emissions that have already shut down six power plants and furlowed 500 workers. I will order a review of all regulations, making sure these regulations use sound science and common-sense cost benefit analysis.
3) REIN IN SPENDING TO SECURE OUR FUTURE: I’ll propose spending cuts of $5 trillion over 5 years, including spending cuts for the remainder of fiscal year 2013. I will propose budgets that spend less money each year than the year before, and I’ll reduce the non-defense related federal workforce at least 10 percent, without replacing with contractors.
4) REPEAL AND REPLACE OBAMACARE: I’ll submit legislation to Congress to repeal ObamaCare and issue an executive order ending related regulatory obligations on the states on Day One. I’ll work with Congress to replace ObamaCare with competitive choices of healthcare plans to improve the quality and limit the cost of healthcare, while protecting those with uninsurable health conditions.
5) BALANCE THE BUDGET: I’ll submit to Congress a budget that will balance within 4 years and I’ll call on Congress to pass a Balanced Budget Amendment to the Constitution which limits federal spending to 18 percent of GDP.
6) PRO-GROWTH AND PRO-FAMILY INDIVIDUAL TAX POLICY: I’ll submit to Congress my comprehensive pro-growth and pro-family tax policies to strengthen opportunity in our country, with lower rates of 10 percent and 28 percent. To help families, I’ll triple the personal deduction for children and eliminate the marriage tax penalty throughout the tax code.
7) RESTORE AMERICA’S COMPETITIVENESS: I’ll cut the corporate tax in half to a flat-tax rate of 17.5 percent to make America competitive internationally, and I’ll allow corporations to expense all business equipment and investment. I’ll eliminate taxes on IRS Code Section 199 manufacturing activity to attract manufacturing back to America. I’ll take the lead on tort reform to lower the cost of doing business in America and to reduce the cost of products and services to consumers. Repeal Dodd-Frank, which is making it harder for businesses to get access to credit and for Americans to buy houses and refinance.
8) NEGOTIATE AND SUBMIT FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS: Because a substantial portion of Americans work for companies which export, I’ll initiate negotiations in the first 100 days and submit to Congress at least five free trade agreements to increase our exports during my first year in office.
9) REFORM ENTITLEMENTS: I will cut means-tested entitlement programs by 10 percent across the board, freeze them for four years, and block grant them to the states as I did as the author of welfare reform. I will reform Medicare and Social Security so they are fiscally sustainable for seniors and young people.
10) REVIVE HOUSING: I’ll submit a plan to Congress to phase out within several years Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s federal housing role, reform and make transparent the Federal Reserve, and allow families whose homes are “underwater” to deduct losses from the sale of their home in order to better get a fresh start in difficult economic times.
________________________________
You may not like his ideas, but please, don’t tell us he has none.
The women in Florida didn't:
“Among women, Texas Rep. Ron Paul won six percent, Gingrich won 29 percent, Romney won 51 percent and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum 13 percent.”
Link: http://dailycaller.com/2012/01/31/women-abandon-gingrich-this-time-by-22-point-margin/
Besides, Paul will stay in and keep splitting the vote.
Newt has a plan, and that is to stay in until he just cannot any longer. That may be after the next round of states to vote; Especially the Southern states. We will see what happens.
But trust me on this, you would not like the result if Newt does drop out. Romney will likely win by bigger margins if that happens.
To be a Newt supporter one must look past all of his baggage.
The reason Santorum is beating Newt is because he has real American family values...
...but so does Mitt.
So if Newt dropped out, I suspect that 80% of his supporters would go to Santorum because they are the two most conservative candidates in the race.
However, if Santorum dropped out, I could see a large percentage going over (reluctantly) to Romney simply because he doesn’t have all of Newts baggage.
“As for Gingrich voters, I honestly don’t think most of them would go to Santorum. The man has no ideas, an unlikeable persona, and is just as big-government, nanny-state as Romney. So I don’t know where they’d go.”
Reluctantly I would go to Santorum. You accurately list Santorum’s deficiencies, but he is an acceptable compromise at this desperate time, whereas Romney is an utter capitulation and a crime against one’s conscience.
Newt and Rick have to start performing better than they have been across the board to give both of them enough delegates to merge into a majority at the convention. And I mean according to type of state. They have shrink the percentage Mitt's been getting in the south, northeast, west, etc. Maybe just by a handful, but it has to be done, and they certainly can't let Mitt increase his percentage takes.
1) Unlikeable person — WOMEN actually vote for him more than men.
Uh, what are you smoking? Have you looked at the poll results? Women never vote for a conservative more than men do. Romney gets the women vote advantage, but Newt and Rick don't.
“I despise Romney.”
Take a number and wait your turn.
:-)
Way to go Seek and Find. I’m voting Rick, but thought I might vote Newt If Rick did not make it. I wonder if the Newt fans would want us to vote romney if Rick drops out? The way they treat him and us, they don’t care. I’m getting to the point that I won’t vote Newt because of the hateful people who DO support him. I’ll have to go third party, because I won’t EVER EVER vote for romney.
There was a time I would painstakingly go to Newt.org and show you point by point how santorum has stolen most of his ideas from Newt, I don't do that anymore. It's not worth the time. But you can go to newt.org and look at solutions, legislative proposals, day one.
Santorum has taken to plagiarizing many of his speeches directly from Newt, it is really unseemly, but he's a good christian man so none of that matters. Santorum - the Republican Barack Obama - supported by people who will not see.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2856419/posts
The above link contains a graph in the first post showing the vote for Santorum by gender, in case you are interested.
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