A brokered convention would see a new candidate—someone other than Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney or Rick Santorum—enter the remaining primaries or parachute in during the convention (if no existing candidate has secured a majority of delegates). In backroom deals, either based partly on the strength of his late primary performances or only on the discretion of party leaders, he would become the nominee.
A contested convention, on the other hand, would see no dark horse enter but none of the existing candidates arrive in Tampa with a 1,144 majority of delegates. Lots of wheeling and dealing would ensue, and after several ballots a nominee would emerge from the four current candidates.
http://martingop.org/2012/02/23/gop-brokered-convention/
If it is a contested covention... which Rove says it would be—Rove says “odds are greater that there’s life on Pluto than that the GOP has a brokered convention”. I don’t like Rove but he is pretty good at this.
A contested—
Newt— I don’t believe Newt would back Ron Paul, I KNOW he wouldn’t back Romney after Iowa and Fl—Newt would probably back Santorum.
Ron Paul— would back Romney (I believe)—if Rand was VP or secured a REALLY good position for Rand. Paul is going to be retiring anyhow.
Santorum— would back Romney, he did before and he thinks it is the fault of Gingrich that he isn’t going to win. He would also jump at the VP slot. Romney will need to offer up something real good for Rand, if Santorum gets VP.
Romney— won’t back anyone. He has waited for this, it was supposed to be his and he has paid for it by crikey! And he will probably have the most delegates, so he will run the show.
To me it looks like Romney gets it even with a contested convention.