I agree—they all need to stay in. I don’t believe all Gingrich supporters will jump behind Santorum (I won’t—I will skip the primary). I don’t believe Santorum voters will all jump behind Gingrich and I think most Paul supporters won’t get behind Gingrich, Santorum or Romney.
I am of the mind they all need to stay in and fight as hard as they can. Go Gingrich!
TAKE IT TO THE CONVENTIONS!!!!
I HAVE BEEN SAYING FOR A YEAR NOW WE NEED A TEA PARTY MARCH ON GOP HEADQUARTERS
LET’S DO IT THEN
The game now is for every non-Romney to steal as many delegates from Romney as possible. After the first ballot, delegates can do other things also there are a lot of uncommitted delegates.
This is why Ron Paul's campaign has been known to work to get delegates favorable to him registered for other candidates.
later
you just undermined your own argument.
If Santorum/Gingrich stay in, in these Southern states where proportional applies, they’re going to split, and that’s going to allow Romney to get more delegates than he should. Look at OK yesterday. The same is going to play out in the other Southern states.
Santorum/Gingrich must combine. Then the person can sweep the south and midwest and get back to an even race. If they both stay in, proportional allocation will destroy them.
Romney doesn’t have to get 1,144. He can get to 1,044 and whatever undecided Supers there are will probably jump on board with him if he has more votes/victories if both Newt and Santorum remain in the race but are several hundred delegates behind.
It’s now or never. Someone’s got to get out, or Romney takes it. If Gingrich exited the race prior to Friday, the whole dynamic would change.
If you live in one of the upcoming primary states, contact the Santorum or Newt campaign and tell them you want to help.
You’re right georgia girl. We need to fight.
Please excuse my ignorance. But if the delegates vote their states, and Romney is the overall candidate, how can there be a second vote?
President Baracchio is laughing, quietly muttering 'Thank you, Satan".
All stay in. This is our best option. It won’t be easy with that dang GOP establishment wanting Romney so badly, but our best chance is to fight to the death for either Newt or Santorum at the convention. I am interested in seeing a convention anyway and how it works. I think it would be a great education for some of us not familiar to the process. I still would like a Gingrich/Santorum ticket so that we are guaranteed 16 years of Republican Presidency.
I am a Newt supporter but I just don’t see a path for Newt to capture the nomination before Tampa. His southern strategy didn’t work — he lost Tennesee and Oklahoma and he needed both of them.
Santorum can come closer but it is highly unlikely that he can hit the magic number any more than Newt can.
I think Newt and Santorum can/should both stay in, however, just to deny Romney as many delegates as possible. Get everyone to the convention and hope for a miracle. The more splintered the convention with nominees the more unusual the miracle may be.
However, Romney won in a state with no competition, others are liberal or mormon heavy, it's not the case from here on out (I think).
We must go to a brokered convention, there are so many uncommitted delegates, even if Romney squeaks by using total delegates he still might not make it.
If he does win, I will not vote for him - period.
I took the pledge and put my name in as a delegate. I pray I get it.
I don’t get why you’re freaking.
Even if your calculations are correct, Gingrich plus Santorum will stil likely win a clear majority of the delegates. So on a second ballot, the candidate with less delegates recommends that his delegates support the other, and thus either Gingrich or Santorum prevail over Romney.
But that assumes that we need a second ballot. What your analysis ignores is that many of the delegates awarded so far - particularly to Santorum - are “soft,” not hard. Thus, if the delegate-momentum and popular vote-momentum swings Newt’s way, many of those delegates will vote for Newt on a first ballot, in order to defeat Romney.
Great start to the conversation. Bed now, I look forward to reading your posts tomorrow.
Newt can still do it if he wins Texas and others as explained here:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2856117/posts
Yeah, it’s not looking good. I just did some quick estimates, giving Romney all or most of the delegates from KS, HI, MO, IL, WI, MD, DC, NY, CT, RI, DE, OR, CA, NJ, and UT, and most of the delagates from Puerto Rico, Guam, Samoa, etc. If he takes only those, he’ll easily get over 1100. I think the only chance is to try and make the proportional primaries in those states split their votes as much as possible AND Gingrich and Santorum will need to pool their delegates at the end of the day, one way or another.
If Paul gives his delegates to Romney, as I think he will, it’s probably over no matter what.
If the largest group of voters have chosen to support Romney, are you saying that we should subvert their votes in order to get one of our lesser candidates nominated?
Is it possible that a fairly large portion of the Romney supporters would be moderates or independents and that they may not vote for our nominee?
I believe it would be better to let the voters decide on their nominee and quit trying to kink the system with hairbrained ideas that likely will backfire on you.
I do not think either Romney or Gingrich would trade their delegates at a brokered convention for a VP slot but Santorum would. Should Romney come up a bit short on delegates when the convention rolls around I would not rule out the prospect of a Romney/Santorum ticket with Santorum bartering delegates for the slot. Santorum is young and as VP he knows he would be in a better position for another swing at the grand prize down the road.
How hard and fast a science is all this? This was posted earlier today, and it seemed to say that Newt wasn’t in too bad shape... So is all this subject to interpretation and wishful thinking or is there some hard undeniable math, which we should be facing, whatever the reality is?
It’s all going to be okay. Newt will be fine, so will we. sometimes you just have to get all the frustration and uncertainty out of your system, but it will be okay. I promise.
PRIMARY: Popular Vote — Soft Pledged - Soft Unpledged – Soft Total – Hard Total
Rom: ….3,242,740, 39.20% …(314)17.36% …(72)15.09% …(386)16.89% ….(302)13.21%
Santo: 2,087,454, 25.23%/(92) 5.09%/(67)14.05%/(159) 6.96%/(79)3.46%
Ging: 1,818,548, 21.98% /107)5.91%/(13) 2.73%/(120)5.25%/(96)4.20%
Paul: ……….,927,348, 11.21% ...…(35)1.93%.......(38)7.97%......(73)3.19% …..(16)0.70%
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/R
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Gingrich Senior Advisor Randy Evans Explains Delegate Math
We still have Newt's supporters and Palin could get in to stop Mitty. We have to help Newt win those upcoming states. People are not happy with liberal Romneycare Mitt; taking him into the fall election doesn't help us. If the media gets rid of Newt, they will attack Rick full force/then it's over. We have to save Newt so he can gain more delegates. Rick cannot see he is being used to keep Newt back in the pack. Rove has pulled off a genuis move to stop Newt. We have to stay with Newt.