Doesn’t matter what we think, this thing is headed to a contested convention. I went through this list and tried to estimate how many delegates Romney would get based on how things went in the states that already voted. In my estimation, he would have to overperform from here on out to get the 1,144. He might get close enough to that though that Ron Paul’s delegates would give him what he needed.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html
Dick Morris was on O’Reilly and said there’s a 40% chance this goes to a contested convention. He does not want that to happen so it’s not like he’s overestimating the possibility out of wishful thinking.
I have no idea if it helps or hurts win an election. I could see how it might help in one way. Obama and the dems would have to spend resources attacking any candidate they think might win up through August. Yet we could even pull out a surprise pick and undermine all that. If they waited to start their negative campaign, they’d have to rush it together in only 2 months. Meanwhile our party can spend all that time working on an anti-Obama campaign. Not to mention, we can have a SuperPAC not tied to any candidate, who starts preparing the anti-Obama campaign well in advance of the convention. Last few elections, the debates and world events defined the results more than anything, and voter sentiment was probably not set in stone until the month before the vote. Media moves a LOT faster now than it did 40 years ago.
Bottom line is we have a better chance with ABR than Mitt, so this is the far better option than handing Mitt the nomination early. Mitt appeals to the same demographics Obama does, which means it would be like nominating a black Republican and expecting him to win over 50% of the black vote. It simply wouldn’t happen. I suspect a whole lot of pro-life voters will refuse to vote for Romney out of conscience and just write someone in or stay home. I’m in Pennsylvania, I know pro-life voters, and they will not vote R if they believe the candidate is pro-choice. So Romney will lose a chunk of the base and then have to fight tooth and nail to make it up with Obama voters like the wealthy, women, highly educated types, etc.
Just look at Mitt, listen to him...it’s easy to sense in your gut that this is NOT the type of person who can ever get elected president. People who can’t connect emotionally with the public cannot win the presidency. It is extremely hard to form an emotional connection with someone who is fundamentally dishonest as Romney is. Dishonesty creates emotional distance. The public will never feel comfortable voting for him. There is an enormous amount of ill-conceived “strategic” voting giving him the nomination now. “Strategic” voting simply will not occur in November. It’s like giving Romney an artificial subsidy that, when removed, will cause his voting “income” to collapse. To base your vote in the primary on how you THINK someone you’ve never met will vote in the future is completely insane. You are bound to get a less correct result than if you simply voted on your instinct and heart. That’s what voters in November will be voting on, so the best predictor of what they will do is to vote in exactly the same manner they will. This approach to voting as amateur political consulting is destined to lead us to a historic and totally unnecessary defeat.
If it goes to convention (August) Obama wins because there is simply not enough lead time for the candidate after a fractured debate to pull together a national campaign in 60 days.