[2ndDivisionVet]

I don’t see how $7-10/gallon gasoline and a severe recession/depression would be a positive for Mr. Obama.

[nathanbedford]

Of course much depends on the timing of the strike but I am betting that Obama is calculating a rally – round-the-flag effect which has occurred with out exception every time the Commander-In-Chief engages in military action. That support will certainly fade as it did for example for George W. Bush in Iraq as things go poorly over time.

But a strike by Obama six weeks or four weeks before the election could have a devastating effect on Republicans' chances.

You ask how would Obama be benefited by $7-$10 a gallon gasoline? Because the memory of $6 a gallon gasoline would be swept away. Because Iran would be the villain and all would be blamed, not on Obama, but on the Ayatollah.

Any severe recession/depression which ensues as a result of skyhigh petroleum costs would not be incurred until after the election.

Incidentally, my complaint about Dershowitz and William Kristol is that they are shaping the debate so that we are utterly vulnerable to such an October Surprise. They will not tolerate any objections raised now to a potential strike because they count the elimination of a bomb in Iran as more important than winning the election. That is certainly true of Dershowitz. Therefore, they see any warnings about an October surprise as being harmful to their ultimate cause of getting a strike against Iran.

They seek to shut down the debate. They will give Obama the running room on this at the cost of the election so long as they get their strike.

Considered from a purely political point of view, our best outcome would be a successful strike by Israel so that Obama gets no credit.

[llandres]

“I don’t see how $7-10/gallon gasoline and a severe recession/depression would be a positive for Mr. Obama.”

a) he’ll find a way to blame both on other things/people besides himself, and his adoring, idiot fans will believe him; and
b) people are reluctant to change presidents if we’re in a serious war.

I know there are millions of intelligent and patriotic folks, I’m just afraid they may be outnumbered by the ignorant and lazy or, if not, the voter fraud will be rampant enough to appear so.