Posted on 03/06/2012 9:35:37 PM PST by RobinMasters
2012 Primary Process
Delegate Allocation: Of the 66 total delegates, 48 are allocated on a winner-take-all basis by Congressional district. Fifteen at-large delegates are allocated proportionally based on statewide vote for candidates, with a threshold of 20 percent; winner-take-all if a candidate receives more than 50 percent of the statewide vote. Three R.N.C. representatives are unbound.
Eligibility: Open to members of the Republican Party. Members of other parties can change party affiliation and vote in primary.
(Excerpt) Read more at elections.nytimes.com ...
History may show that Santorum missed his chance by a few thousand votes in both Michigan and Ohio. A 1% swing in Ohio and a 2% swing in Michigan, and the headlines would be reading “Romney on the Ropes”. Santorum is by no means out of it, but as long as he’s splitting the conservative vote with Gingrich, I think Romney is going to continue squeaking out victories in the big states. Romney will likely limp to victory, but he’ll be doing so without an ounce of enthusiasm from the Republican base. Not a good scenario for a man who is going to have to take on the master of hyperbole in November.
That is true the conundrum is he never had it because he is not with the base, again ya can't repaint this Zebra....
...why would ANYONE keep pumping millions into Newt at this point with NO chance of getting the nomination?
I sincerely disagree that Speaker Gingrich has no chance at the nomination. And there is only one chance of a combination of two of the four candidates combining on a ticket that could unite the party and beat the democrats - that is Gingrich (at the top) - Romney as VP.
“How can you ethically spend multi-millions on a campaign that does nothing but drain votes off the other conservative choice?”
Most conservatives do not trust Rick Santorum as a true conservative. This is due to several factors and his record.
“Perhaps there is already an agreement between Newt and Mittens?”
I don’t think at this time there are any agreements between the candidates. Those will come at the convention, when the representatives of the people - the delegates - are asked to select the ticket.
They didn’t stop crusading papism.
Santorum lost because CATHOLICS voted by huge margins for Romney.
Cincinnati and Cleveland, where Santorum lost the state, are huge Catholic centers.
The Catholics went for the Mormon. Unbelievable.
Say what you will about Santorum, but he’s up front about his faith, and he’s an unapologetic Roman Catholic. His OWN turned against him in huge numbers.
As an Ohioan, I am terribly disappointed this morning that Santorum lost because Catholics went for Romney.
Conservatives are killing each other, and it has gone on long enough now that I must begin to believe that one or both want Romney to win.
Are they Cafeteria Catholics or do they like me find him annoying at times and something in your gut tells ya he ain't got it...
You make great points, and I hope you are right! Yet, based on Newt’s finishes last night he can’t win enough of the remaining primaries to pull out a win. He can make a splash, and so can Rick, but the ONLY possible chance Newt or Rick has to win the nomination is if one of them pull out right now. A three person race goes to Mittens.
Look at the remaining primary schedule. Even if Newt could “run” the south he is highly unlikely to pick up anything significant in the NE, the West and midwest.
Rick is in the same boat. Due to his social conservativism you can count him out in the West and NE. He does have a better chance then Newt in the Midwest, but that is unlikely in states like IL and WI.
With both Newt and Rick in the race they will split the southern vote (Like TN and GA). I’m not trying to be downer, but barring a miracle (i.e., Newt or Rick drop out now) Mittens will have the nomination by June. Seriously, if someone can give a logical alternative I’m totally ready to change my opinion, but the bottom line is...
“Rick and Newt both stay in gives Mittins a win.”
If there is a realistic pathway to something different then share it.
Shades of the Clinton - Bush presidential election when the little general syphoned of 20% of the votes.
Triangulation 101.
You are assuming that the path to the nomination is through gaining enough committed delegates through the pre-convention primary process to make having a real national convention a joke, like it has been so many times in the past. Not this time.
From what I have been hearing this morning, at this time, there is no way that Newt or Rick can win enough delegates to win the race. With both still in, neither will be able to win and overtake Romney because Romney will also be winning many more states.
Looks like conservatives screwed the pooch once again:(
I agree. If obama is re-elected and the country totally deteriorates and falls into chaos, I don't want that on my conscience. I will be voting against obama for my grandchildren no matter who the nominee is. I could never hate Romney or anyone on the planet as much as I do the fraud currently occupying our WH.
I haven’t seen the post-Super Tues delegate count. But if you add Gingrich and Santorums delegate numbers together are they more than Willards?
Just don’t see that happening. Just simple math...the numbers don’t add up with the remaining states and their typical political leaning. The Southern states are really the last stand for widespread conservatism; however, the West, NE and much of the Midwest is a wide mixture of everything, and “everything” states will lean towards Mittens. Ohio is fairly conservative, far more than WI or IL or PA and Mittens still got the edge.
It is only wishful thinking at this point for a brokered convention, or a Mittens loss, unless either Rick or Newt leave...the sooner the better.
At this point both those guys have been so savaged by the press (and would/will continue to be so) that I don’t see how they can mount a realistic challenge to overcoming the Mittens smear machine with both in the race. One of them has GOT to GO!
If not just get use to the idea that Mittens will be the nominee come June.
Well, does your gut tell you that Romney's got it?
Because it was a simple math problem yesterday. In Georgia, Santorum voters should have been voting for Gingrich, and in Ohio Gingrich voters should have been voting for Santorum.
Had that happened yesterday, Romney would have won ONLY Massachusetts and Idaho.
Everywhere else, Romney lost 60%+ of the vote, but still won the state.
That makes this conservative weep.
Heck no, he just rubs me wrong on so many levels I don't have hours to type! Yes I am one of those that can't pull the lever for Romney, I grew up in MA and he changed nothing, he made it worse.
McCain pickup up 13 million votes with Sarah, left 6 million out their that didn't go to the polls for him.
How many of those 19 million will be excited to vote for Romney? We are soooo screwed...
No, but they put together larger combined vote totals than Mittens in many places where he won a plurality and got the delegates. So if there were one instead of both, that combined vote would result in many more delegates.
Gotta love how Drudge is bemoaning how “MSM DOWNPLAYS ROMNEY WINS...” as one of the lead headlines.
It's almost as if mit's whole campaign is a creation of the hussein administration. It's a crap product, that requires spending several hundred million dollars to convince us all just how good for us it is.
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