[cookcounty]

Newt could be a winner-take-all in Georgia. 50% is easily within his reach.

Also, he’s rising in Tennessee and putting serious effort in Oklahoma.

Any thoughts on Alaska, anyone? I’m predicting that as a roughly 4-way tie, 25-25-25-25%, which would be quite weird. They actually do have a fair amount of delegates (27).

[cookcounty]

Newt winning the Super Tuesday delegate count tonight is not impossible. Rick will almost certainly finish third.

Romney: 139. Virginia (49), Massachusetts (41), Vermont (17), Idaho (32) = 139

Newt: 232. Georgia (76), North Dakota (28), Tennessee (58), Oklahoma (43), Alaska (27) = 232

Rick: 66. Ohio (66), maybe.

There will be stragglers here and there, which will pretty much cancel each other out, though Mitt is guaranteed all of Virginia's 49. Newt will lose more at the margins than Romney, so after final adjustment:

Newt 206, Romney 168, Santorum 67, Paul 13

Ron Paul is weak in the south and will get nothing out of VA, GA, OK or TN. His only hope is ID, ND, VT and especially, AK.