ilgipper said, “Unless something goes horribly against Mitt, he’ll sew it up on super tuesday.”
Romney is going to hit a brick wall in the South. The dirty little secret is only ONE of the 21 most conservative states according to Gallup rankings below has voted TO DATE (most of them southern states). 885 of the delegates remaining come from those conservative states (the other 989 from the other states). After tonight, Romney only has 137 of the 1,144 delegates needed to win.
The path to at least stop Romney from winning the nomination outright is to keep Romney in third place throughout the southern states (or if one of the two has a blowout win like in SC). This thing is NOT over yet by a longshot. But the only likely real path to the nomination for either Newt or Rick is to earn enough delegates to beat Romney and Paul’s combined total and then find a way to merge them at the convention.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/152459/Mississippi-Conservative-State-Liberal.aspx
TOTAL DELEGATES BY STATE (1144 needed to win):
CON 909 (884 to go)
MOD 661 (420 to go)
LIB 605 (569 to go)
??? 32
CON Mississippi (primary) - 40
CON Utah (primary) - 40 (WTA)
CON Wyoming (caucus) - 29
CON Alabama (primary) - 50 (WTA)
CON Louisiana (primary) - 46
CON Arkansas (primary) - 36
CON Oklahoma (primary) - 43 (WTA)
CON Nebraska (primary) - 35
CON Idaho (caucus) - 32
CON Tennessee (primary) - 58 (WTA)
*VOTED* CON South Carolina (primary) – 25 [GINGRICH]
CON North Dakota (caucus) - 28
CON South Dakota (primary) - 28
CON Kansas (caucus) - 40
CON Texas (primary) - 155
CON Georgia (primary) - 76
CON Indiana (primary) - 46
CON West Virginia (primary) - 31
CON Montana (primary) - 26
CON Missouri (GOP caucus) – 52
CON Kentucky (primary) - 45
MOD North Carolina (primary) - 55
MOD Ohio (primary) - 66
MOD Virginia (primary) - 49
*VOTED* MOD Arizona (primary) - 29 (WTA) [ROMNEY]
*VOTED* MOD Florida (primary) - 50 (WTA) [ROMNEY]
*VOTED* MOD Iowa (caucus) – 28 [SANTORUM]
*VOTED* MOD Michigan (primary) - 30 [ROMNEY]
MOD New Mexico (primary) - 23
MOD Pennsylvania (primary) - 72
MOD Wisconsin (primary) - 42
*VOTED* MOD Colorado (caucus) - 36 [SANTORUM]
*VOTED* MOD Minnesota (caucus) - 40 [SANTORUM]
MOD Delaware (primary) - 17 (WTA)
*VOTED* MOD Nevada (caucus) - 28 [ROMNEY]
MOD Illinois (primary) - 69
MOD Alaska (caucus) - 27
LIB Maryland (primary) - 37
*VOTED* LIB Maine (caucus) - 24 [ROMNEY]
LIB Vermont (primary) - 17
LIB Connecticut (primary) - 28
*VOTED* LIB New Hampshire (primary) – 12 [ROMNEY]
LIB Rhode Island (primary) - 19
LIB New Jersey (primary) - 50 (WTA)
LIB California (primary) - 172
LIB Hawaii (caucus) - 20
LIB New York (primary) - 95
LIB Washington (caucus) - 43
LIB Oregon (primary) - 28
LIB Massachusetts (primary) - 41
LIB District of Columbia (primary) - 19 (WTA)
??? U.S. Virgin Islands (caucus) - 9
??? Puerto Rico (primary) - 23
[quote]
But the only likely real path to the nomination for either Newt or Rick is to earn enough delegates to beat Romney and Paul’s combined total and then find a way to merge them at the convention.
[/quote]
So the only way for Newt to win is with a brokered convention?
That’s a telling concession.
Santorum can win outright with his delegates.