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Well not to get everybody overconfident but let's take a look at some of the "swing" states that Obama only narrowly won in 2008. Does anybody really think that Obama is going to do as good or better in these states in 2012?

North Carolina - 15 EVs - Obama 49.9 | McPain 49.5

Indiana - 11 EVs - Obama 49.9 | McPain 49.0

Florida - 27 EVs - Obama 50.9 | McPain 48.4

Ohio - 20 EVs - Obama 51.2 | McPain 47.2 The above states are those that the GOP should easily win this time around because if Obama only narrowly won them when his popularity was at zenith, it is not logical that he should win them this time around.

Provided that the GOP hold on to the states they won in 2008, these 73 EVs bring the GOP total to 246 and now only need to pick up 24 EVs in the rest of the country to win.

Pick up Pennsylvania (21 EVs) and any other state (i.e. Iowa, Colorado) and Obama loses.

Pennsylvania is the bellwether in this election. Obama won by 10 points there in 2008. Obama's popularity has dropped by well more than 10 point since then. This is a state that the GOP should and must pick up.

Trust me, behind the facade, the Obama people are very nervous.

"--Pennsylvania is the bellwether in this election--"

Pennsylvania always teases but rarely delivers EV's to the GOP. I believe the Republicans need to flip 97 electoral votes to win the White House, and the only sure bet I see is Indiana's slate of eleven. Demographics is destiny, and with 49.5 percent on some form of the dole coupled with the usual Democrat constituency, I do not see where the other 86 electoral votes are going to come from.