We can’t even get a statute. What is the likelihood of a Constitutional Amendment?
What do you mean? A lot of states have passed anti-same-sex marriage amendments. We need 38 states and 2/3rds of the Congress to pass it. Or the states can do it on their own through a constitutional convention. 29 already ban it constitutionally and 41 if you include banning it legally as well. Still, I think the movement for this amendment better hurry since the liberal establishment is gradually turning people towards accepting gay marriage. It is not going to get any easier to do.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Same-sex_marriage_in_the_United_States#State_law
Out of 28 states where constitutional amendments or initiatives that define marriage as the union of a man and a woman were put on the ballot in a voter referendum, voters in all 28 states voted to approve such amendments.[25]
As of January 2010, 29 states had constitutional provisions restricting marriage to one man and one woman, while 12 others had laws “restricting marriage to one man and one woman.”[30]