I completely agree. A black swan event is, by definition, an event that is not anticipated, not discussed constantly nor on the radar......For those of you who are not opposed to a bit of heavy science reading, there is such a discussion ongoing on this forum. You might find it interesting.
Thank you for the link. Perhaps you would both be appeased by the coinage (which I saw above), "grey swan". After all, if someone like Mother Abigail has forseen, intuited, or somehow perceived the danger, then the definition of "black swan" as written no longer strictly applies.
That said, perhaps the definition could be modified slightly to include events that are insufficiently manifest to allow intelligent, coordinated response(s) by the community. The Pearl Harbor Raid would be an example. Colonel Bonner Fellers, USAAC officer attached to the chief air marshal's office in Cairo in December 1941, was told about the Pearl Harbor raid the day before it happened, by someone who'd just seen a warning from British intelligence. Fellers assumed the knowledge was general and did not forward it. The raid went in unmolested by any effectual response, British and Soviet (and White House) foreknowledge notwithstanding.
I wouldn’t consider Pearl Harbor a Black Swan because it was both within the realm of possibilities and many people had anticipated what to do if it did happen. They knew the Japs might attack in some fashion.
Of course it was in the realm of possibilities.
You are shopping one day and in a very brief instant everything has changed.
It must have been that way many times in our history. Geological disasters, invasions and plagues - all events that just occur out of the blue, so to speak.
But I am told that chatter and background noise are important and (perhaps I am just to into the subject) but from my stock show in the morning to the last posts I read on the Internet at night - the theme of imminent danger permeates the discussion.
Perhaps it is always this way and TEOTEAWKI is just around the corner for each generation - but there really is a very heavy feel to atmosphere.
I am not certain if there is a swan, and certainly I have no clue as to the color of said bird....
But all the same since my contact with MA I have changed.