Posted on 02/20/2012 9:46:09 AM PST by Jim Robinson
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich hinted Sunday that if rival Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney loses the primary election in his home state of Michigan, he should drop out of the race.
“If he loses his home state, I don’t see what he says the next morning to his donors to stay in the race,” Mr. Gingrich told “Fox News Sunday.”
If Mr. Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, can’t win his home state in a primary election, how can he beat President Obama in Michigan, which typically votes with the Democrats, Mr. Gingrich asked.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtontimes.com ...
And because some folks mentioned GA, I’ll cover the rules on that again.
There’s a misconception that a Gingrich victory in GA would win him all 76 delegates. While the Superdelegates in GA are bound to the statewide results, one has to win 50% in all the CD’s and statewide to take them all.
Current polling suggests that Gingrich is ahead in all of GA’s 14 CD’s, but not over the 50% hump to claim all three delegates allocated to each CD. GA Delegate allocation rules state that if the CD winner doesn’t get to 50%, it’s a 2-1 delegate split between 1st and 2nd place. Santorum is projected to finish no worse than 2nd in 12 of the CD’s and Romney 2nd in no more than 2 CD’s. That would give a delegate allocation of Gingrich: 28, Santorum 12, and Romney 2
The other 31 delegates are allocated at the statewide level. If someone gets over 50% they win them all, otherwise it’s proportional. At best, Gingrich is at 40%, Santorum is at 30%, and Romney 25%. This would give a delegate allocation of Gingrich: 13, Santorum 10, and Romney 8.
As the statewide winner, Gingrich would get the 3 bound Superdelegates. Final GA Delegate Distribution would be: Gingrich 44, Santorum 22, Romney 10
Is that distribution good enough to carry on? I don’t know, I suspect the Gingrich team doesn’t like it which is why Newt’s been spending more time in GA. It’s not like I think he’s in trouble, but they desparately need to get to that 50% level to claim all 76 delegates. Otherwise, the victory may be mixed.
I too noticed he has quite a few “home” states. Let’s hope he is sent back to one of them before the Convention.
Irony abounds on Feb 28 indeed in MI & AZ.
Internals of new Arizona Republican Nomination Survey:
If the Republican candidates for President
were just Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Mitt Romney…………………………………………… 41%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 43% ..Wow! Thanks to McLame endorsing Rmoney, too
Perhaps the state of Despair.
Newt knows the feeling of having both the libs and the establishment (i.e. moderates) smearing him for his great work in the nineties -- and I'm sure Newt will be endorsing Rick when the time is RIGHT in 2012.
Btw, Gallup daily just out!!! Romney down 2..
Santorum 36, Romney 26!!!!!
If Romney loses the primary election in his home state of Michigan, we will see Newt rocket back to the top.
You don’t have to believe me, just remember that I said it. ;>)
Then Gingrich should urge his Michigan supporters to vote for Santorum, because Santorum is in a position to beat Romney, Gingrich isn’t.
Santorum's staying around will have the same "ironic" effect.
You see its people like you who give FReepers a bad name. We are trying to stop Romney at any cost. This is the central mission at hand. If you think why a Gingrich withdrawal will not assist this goal argue your case. Who know’s you may have a point. But simply engaging in visceral stuff shows a lack of intellectual grasp on your point. Rush Limbaugh and Mark Levin have all but endorsed Santorum as the last remaining viable candidate to beat Obama, and even conservative publications like The Washington Times, The American Spectator, Townhall, and National Review have come around to saying the same thing. The question for all of us is not Gingrich’s politics, although that does matter, but at this stage of the game its a question of electability. To paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld, we got to war with what we have. And if Santorum is within reach of beating Romney in his home state, and making this a 2-person race, it befits Gingrich to strategically withdraw in MI. I would have said the same thing if the numbers were reversed in Gingrich’s favor. This is not and never has been about bashing Gingrich or anyone else. It comes to down to the best options we have to defeat Romney. Your sarcasm about Santorum quitting MI as having the same “ironic” effect reveals either an ignorance of MI politics where Santorum has a strong blue-collar appeal, or worse reckless, that you are willing to risk a Romney win in MI as does the Republican Establishment. When you join a resistance you join allies to defeat a common enemy of conservatism.
Actually, you’re a jerk, because it’s obviously you didn’t read the article.
It's a perfect point. If Newt has the slightest chance of losing in GA, he should have kept his mouth shut.
This is a continuing problem with Newt.
And, If he wins the nomination, I'll vote for him...
Then I guess Jim Rob is giving his own forum a bad name as, last I heard, he's a Newt fan and probably doesn't understand why someone would be so rabidly for a lightweight like Rick.
Just who is this "we" you talk about? 99% of us want to stop Romney, but many want a warrior with an intellect as our candidate. Rick might get us to vote for him, but Newt will make us eager to cast the vote...
Thanks for the ping TOL! :-)
Being a “fan” is one thing, strategy in defeating Romney is something that reasonable and honest minds could differ. If Romney is advancing, I and many others will join the supporting troops behind him. But if, for whatever reason, he is receding and Santorum is advancing, especially in MI,and is in the cusp of a major seismic upset, do you give more ballast to Romney by casting a vote to the candidate receding in MI? If Santorum is “rabidly” lightweight, you may try telling that to the Trifecta voters in MO, CO, and MN, and educating Limbaugh and Levin on the way on why they think at this point in the game, Santorum is best to beat Obama and according to US-Gallup was about 8 points behind Obama.
Gingrich might have a smaller shot than Santorum at winning the nomination, but I think he at least stands a chance in November, and I don't think he'd drag down the rest of the ticket.
Easy call for me.
“This is a continuing problem with Newt”
LoL!
If Gingrich does not win GA then it is unlikely he would go on to win much else, and I would expect him to drop out.
You are not nearly politically astute as Gingrich is. That is your problem, not his.
Your bet paid off as a ZOT.
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