Posted on 02/20/2012 6:28:26 AM PST by RobinMasters
Has a Mitt Romney surge begun in Michigan? A week ago, PPP had Rick Santorum up by fifteen points in Romney’s home state. In their new poll, PPP puts Romney back only four — although Santorum hasn’t actually lost any support:
The Republican race for President in Michigan has tightened considerably over the last week, with what was a 15 point lead for Rick Santorum down to 4. He leads with 37% to 33% for Mitt Romney, 15% for Ron Paul, and 10% for Newt Gingrich.
The tightening over the last week is much more a function of Romney gaining than Santorum falling. Santorum’s favorability spread of 67/23 has seen no change since our last poll, and his share of the vote has dropped only 2 points from 39% to 37%. Romney meanwhile has seen his net favorability improve 10 points from +10 (49/39) to +20 (55/35) and his vote share go from 24% to 33%.
What we’re seeing in Michigan is a very different story from Florida where Romney surged by effectively destroying his opponent’s image- here Romney’s gains have more to do with building himself up.
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
no.
The original PPP poll from a week ago has proven to be an outlier since they over polled evangelicals. They corrected that in this poll and that accounts for almost all of the shift in the numbers.
This newest PPP poll just brings PPP in line with all the other polls done of Michigan which show Santorum leading by about 5%
Predictable spin from the establishment. Other polls have Santorum maintaining his lead.
PPD’s poll from over a week ago was an outlier. It was the only poll that showed Santorum with a 15 point lead. Both Rasmussen and Detroit News showed it has a 3-5 point race with Santorum in the upper 30’s and Romney in the low 30’s.
This primary is STILL a “must win” for Romney, and it may be that he just can’t close the deal.
A brokered convention is becoming a very real possibility, calling in people who at the moment are NOT active candidates.
Sarah Palin, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, even Marco Rubio, may all be in play. And do not overlook a retread for Herman Cain.
May you live in interesting times. Why does that still sound like a curse?
Never believed the 15% lead anyway, but the amazing thing is that Romney is not walking away with MI where his dad was governor.
The GOP-e has proven they will commit large scale voter fraud in Maine for Romney, I’m sure Michigan is no different.
Santorum has not fallen at all. Willard has risen somewhat at the expense of Newt probably. Mittens has likely gotten all the Gingrich and undecided votes he will get. Any more such votes will drift to Santorum who still enjoys a 67-23 favorable to Romney’s 55-35, suggesting that Romney’s smear tactics are not working this time.
Romney is well known in Michigan(just not well liked)and he has reached his ceiling of 33. He is poised to suffer a killer loss that will finish him and set Santorum up as the nominee.
Santorum has not fallen at all. Willard has risen somewhat at the expense of Newt probably. Mittens has likely gotten all the Gingrich and undecided votes he will get. Any more such votes will drift to Santorum who still enjoys a 67-23 favorable to Romney’s 55-35, suggesting that Romney’s smear tactics are not working this time.
Romney is well known in Michigan(just not well liked)and he has reached his ceiling of 33. He is poised to suffer a killer loss that will finish him and set Santorum up as the nominee.
Correct, TF.
I hope that Rick hammers Mittens at the debates for being less than a son of Michigan. He abandoned them long ago.
Romney is a “native” of no less than three states. Michigan, Massachusetts and Utah. Hmmm.
I am in the Newt camp, but I may have to hold my nose and pull the lever for Rick because I revile Romney.
Boy does this election cycle suck even worse than the last one...
Taildragger, Willard has got to be stopped. Santorum is the only one who can do it. If Newt were in the position Santorum is in, I would pull the lever for him.
I have no problems with Satorum and think he is actually the candidate with the least baggage and the most appeal in the battleground states of the Midwest and thus best positioned to defeat Obama.
They say money is the mother’s milk of politics, but if Mitt Romney can’t win the Michigan primary after spending $20 million against his poorly-financed opponent, that philosophy will go out the window — at least in presidential elections.
In fact, the money-equals-victory philosophy has been disproved time and again over the course of the Republican primary season. All Rick Perry’s and Jon Huntsman’s huge campaign war chests got them was an opportunity to enter the debates so they could show how awful they were. Meanwhile, the debates offered poor candidates the opportunity to soar at least briefly in the polls until being shot down by their opponents/MSM/DNC’s attacks. And now, the leader is the once-lowly, poorly funded, Rick Santorum.
State and local candidates, without the benefit of prime-time debates, do need campaign funds to make themselves known to prospective voters. However, it makes no sense to donate to presidential candidates. If Republicans focused their campaign dollars on helping state and local Republicans win elections instead of wasting it on presidential hopefuls, the country would be better off.
And PPP’s newest polling also shows today that Rick is up by 9 with Newt out of Michigan.
Plus fwiw, Nate Silver still says that Rick has a 72% chance to win Michigan when you look at all relevant scientific polling.
Willard’s 28% chance to win Michigan sounds good to me. We’ve got to bury the liberal in his own birth state.
http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/fivethirtyeight/primaries/michigan
More than likely the first poll was an outlier. Santorum’s numbers stayed at 39. Romney’s up to 35%. Most polls had Romney between 4-10. PPP’s last poll had it at 15. This brings PPP in line with the other polls.
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