Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: Ingtar

I won’t rain on your parade, but Santorum’s boost, especially in Georgia, is a mile wide and a quarter inch deep.


12 posted on 02/17/2012 1:13:56 PM PST by Red Steel
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies ]


To: Red Steel

whatever, you believe what propoganda you want. The fact of the matter is that as the previous FReeper just pointed out, the poll numbers you put in parantheses are obsolete. Santorum has gained ground in the south and is now leading in TN and OK.

Even if Santorum doesn’t win GA, based on his rise, it’s highly likely Gingrich won’t eclipse 50% in the statewide vote, or by Congressional District either (with the exception of maybe the 6th).

And this is important based on how delegates are allocated in GA. The race is looking like it may be 40% Gingrich, 30% Santorum, 20-25% Romney, and Paul the rest. In this result, I assume Gingrich would carry all 14 CD’s, however, he would not get over 50% in those CD’s to win all the delegates. In that case, the 2nd place finisher in the CD gets 1 of the 3 delegates. I expect Santorum to finish no worse than 2nd in at least 12 of these CD’s, and Romney to finish 2nd in no more than 2. Additionally, if Newt cannot win GA with 50% of the statewide vote, the delegates get allocated proportionally, so what you have is:

Gingrich (2*14CD’s) + (.40*31) + 3 Bound GA RNC members = 44 Delegates.

Santorum (1*12CD’s) + (.30*31) = 22 Delegates

Romney (1*2CDs) + (.25*31) = 10 delegates

This is supposed to be Gingrich’s best Super Tuesday state. Everyone mistakenly is believing he’ll get the bulk of 70+ delegates here, but it is unlikely because he would have to win 50% across each CD, and based on current polling, it just isn’t happening.

So yeah, that Santorum support that’s a mile wide and quarter inch deep, is still going to net him at least a 1/3 of the GA delegates.


20 posted on 02/17/2012 1:55:00 PM PST by parksstp (I pick Rick! (If he's good enough for Mark Levin and Rush Limbaugh, he's good enough for me))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson