$0.125 per KWH? Not so fast.
Much nat gas is burned in combined cycle plants, with 50% conversion to electricity. Many coal plants are lucky to hit 35% conversion.
Nat gas is down to $2.50 per million BTUs, implying a fuel cost of 2.56 cents per KWH at the buss bar at 40% efficiency. Throw in two cents capital and O&M and you have equivalent to coal / nuke cost.
Nat gas plants can operate 90% of the time, spreading out O&M and capital costs.
Wind capacity factor: 25%. This adds hidden capital and O&M to the cost down the line.
When wind flows, other plants on the grid have to shut down; increasing thier cost basis as you don't furlough mechanics and operators during periods waiting for the wind to stop again.
This cost has to be added into the overall picture.
False. Wind projects with a low projected net capacity factor of 25% don't get built these days. Most wind farms these days are well in excess of 35% and some in the Midwest are at 50%. Because the PTC is a production based incentive, turbine manufacturers have been incentivised to maximize energy production and ensure the turbines keep producing.
There are no "hidden capital and O&M costs down the line." They are very accurately quantified in each wind farm's financial forecast prior to construction to ensure the investor's target return is achievable.
Wind energy is not the be-all end-all energy solution for America, but it makes sense where it's windy. Congressional failure to renew the PTC is simply that, a failure.