“I don’t see how obama can lose.”
I can see plenty of ways.
But what we’re talking about is some therapy, so let’s start with truth. The truth is that obama has a good chance of winning. Any incumbent has an advantage going in and people will often pick the evil they know over the evil they don’t.
That said, the Presidential race will be about the economy, and Rick actually has a bit of an advantage in this respect in that (1) he isn’t obama, and (2) he really hasn’t said a whole lot about how he would approach the problem. That gives him some flexibility in putting together a politically palatable alternative. His blue collar roots help as well; he can credibly respond to the tired canard that the GOP is the party only for the wealthy.
His weaknesses are actually more on the primary side; he is a big government Republican and that is not a good place to be with conservatives. If conservatives choose to overlook that in the primaries, then it isn’t much of a problem in the general.
The ‘rats and their allies in the media will attack Rick for his social conservatism. We already know that. If Rick is the nominee, plan on a long slog over things like contraception. All in all, I think people care more about whether they will have a roof over their head and food on the table than a candidates views on that subject, so I wouldn’t expect it to be as much of a problem as it would in good economic times.
Summary: it’s a winnable race for Rick. Not easily winnable, and not winnable if Rick does the typical GOP thing and figures out a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. But all things being equal, he would have a fair chance going into the general.
(Full disclosure: I’m in the Paul camp. But Rick would be my next choice amongst what is available.)
That is a good analysis. I agree with it, really, in its entirety. If Santorum were to win, it would be cause of “Reagan Democrats” and he does have a chance there.
I think one of the questions is, interestingly, will the Santorum campaign simply have the discipline to continually re-focus on the real issues, even as the obama camp and the media (redundant...) throw out the contraception. He will have to be very resistant to their psy ops here. Perhaps a seasoned, tough, conservative running mate would help here. But there isn’t really one of those around, except Cheney, and I don’t think he’d be up for another.....
In any event, excellent post. And, incidentally, I hope your guys pulls out a victory in Maine....
I’m in the same boat. I started off in the Paul camp because of his stand on personal liberty (I’m in U.P. Michigan and see what’s going on across the border in Canada) and abortion (I trust an obgyn to remain pro-life, more than I trust a politician to do so), but with Santorum a close second.
But with everything else going on, I think it’s time for social conservatives in the Paul and Newt camps to rally to Santorum in order to to stop Romney.