ARG poll shows Santorum up 6 over Romney in Michigan (Seems to agree with PPP Poll trend)

Hotair ^ | 02/13/2012 | Ed Morrissey

[SeekAndFind]

Of all the polling that takes place over the next three weeks, Michigan might get the highest profile. Mitt Romney has strong ties to Michigan; his father was a popular governor in the state, and most people assumed Romney would not have to expend much energy there to win a Republican primary. The first hint of trouble came two weeks ago in a Rasmussen poll that showed Romney only 15 points up over Newt Gingrich but only at 38%, roughly what he got in 2008 against two strong challengers. I wrote at the time that Michigan could provide an opening for an unpleasant surprise for Team Romney, and today’s ARG poll of 600 likely Republican primary voters has delivered it:

Rick Santorum leads the Michigan Republican presidential primary with 33%. Santorum is followed by Mitt Romney with 27%, Newt Gingrich with 21%, and Ron Paul with 12%.

Of course, this could be an outlier, as none of the previous polling in Michigan has had Santorum out of the teens. Now, though, Santorum takes 42% of the Republicans surveyed in the poll (72% of the sample), with Gingrich coming in a distant second at 24%. Romney wins nearly a majority of independents at 48%, with the other three candidates in a virtual tie in the teens. Santorum now leads among Tea Party adherents 37/29 over Gingrich, and comes in a close second to Romney among non-TP adherents 35/30, with Gingrich at 14%. Romney tops Santorum among women only by six points, 39/33, while Santorum beats Gingrich among men 33/28, with Romney at 17%.

Team Romney had better hope that this is an outlier. A Michigan loss would seriously damage Romney’s electability argument, and would give Santorum a great deal of momentum heading into Super Tuesday. Is it an outlier, though? PPP tweeted yesterday that their multiple-day survey in the state so far showed Santorum up by as much as 10-15 points over Romney, and has Newt Gingrich losing to Ron Paul. Those results just got published, and Santorum leads 39/24:

Rick Santorum’s taken a large lead in Michigan’s upcoming Republican primary. He’s at 39% to 24% for Mitt Romney, 12% for Ron Paul, and 11% for Newt Gingrich.

Santorum’s rise is attributable to two major factors: his own personal popularity (a stellar 67/23 favorability) and GOP voters increasingly souring on Gingrich. Santorum’s becoming something closer and closer to a consensus conservative candidate as Gingrich bleeds support.

The internals look different than ARG’s, however:

Santorum’s winning an outright majority of the Tea Party vote with 53% to 22% for Romney and 10% for Gingrich. He comes close to one with Evangelicals as well at 48% to 20% for Romney and 12% for Gingrich. And he cracks the 50% line with voters identifying as ‘very conservative’ at 51% to 20% for Romney and 10% for Gingrich.

Santorum’s benefiting from the open nature of Michigan’s primary as well. He’s only up by 12 points with actual Republican voters, but he has a 40-21 advantage with the Democrats and independents planning to vote that pushes his overall lead up to 15 points. Santorum is winning by a healthy margin in every region of the state except for Oakland County, where Romney has a 40-26 advantage, and the area around Lansing where Paul actually has an advantage at 30% to 27% for both Romney and Santorum.

As noted, Paul actually finished ahead of Gingrich in the PPP poll, but only by a single point, which is a virtual tie. How did Gingrich fare so poorly in Michigan? His favorability rating dropped into negative territory at -9, with only 38% seeing him favorably. He does better than Paul’s -19, but Romney has a +10 and Santorum a huge +44 at 67/23.

We’ll see if other polling confirms ARG and PPP and corroborates the assessment of PPP’s president, who writes that “Rick Santorum has all the momentum in Michigan right now.” If so, Romney will have to spend a lot of time and money in the state to get it back in his column, or his electability argument will evaporate just in time for the biggest date on the primary calendar.

[ConservativeDude]

If Romney loses MI, he is going to be in “real” trouble, not just hypothetical trouble.

Never thought I’d say it, but I wish Paul would have pulled off a victory in Maine! Close, but no cigar!

[Mariner]

Santorum's weak flank, a PERCEIVED Puritanical Religiosity, cannot be attacked in a GOP primary.

Social Conservatives better be darn sure this is their man because they are likely to get what they want.

[Buckeye Battle Cry]

Time to scorch the Earth in Michigan. Romney sure as hell cannot compete on a level playing field of positions and ideals.

[Vigilanteman]

The electoral math, so far, still shows Santorum doing way better than Gingrich.

Seven reasons for Rick Santorum

1. Who has won the most states without the benefit of their own money, last election's organization or a billionaire casino sugar daddy?
   
2. Who is everybody's second choice when he isn't their first?
   
3. Who can get both the Romney people and the Gingrich people, who hate each other, to vote for him?
   
4. Who has the best record on immigration?
   
5. Who has the best plan for repealing ObamaCare? And is the only GOP candidate who didn't help write or approve legislation which helped spawn this fiasco?
   
6. Who has the best plan for expanding the American economy and strengthening American families?
   
7. Who is the closest thing we have to the "generic Republican" which polls show consistently beating Obama and is most likely to make the election about Obama's sorry record rather than about himself?

The key point is #3.

The libertarian cowboys supporting Gingrich or Ron Paul will be here shortly with their prepared cherry-picked links to focus on the 10% or so that Rick Santorum wasn't a pure conservative during his 14 years in congress.

Easy for them to say since neither of their guys ever won an election outside a safely conservative congressional district, something Santorum managed to do four times.

[VanDeKoik]

Darn shame that this is what the sad result will be.

Bunch of people running scared to this guy because they could not stand and fight.

All people care about is thst he really loves church and his family doesnt have a hair out of place.

[SeekAndFind]

You don’t think Santorum has a chance of beating Obama?

[hoosiermama]

Due to a snow storm one of the Caucus did not meet. Will meet next Saturday. A freeper said it was a strong Paul area. Imagine it may be even stronger now. Exactly how many votes did separate them?

IOW It’s not over till it’s over.....No matter what the MSM says.

[cripplecreek]

All people care about is thst he really loves church and his family doesnt have a hair out of place.

Actually I've always liked Santorum and he was on my short list for president anyway.

[Vigilanteman]

There is nothing which Romney can or will do in Michigan insofar as scortched earth tactics which ObaMao won't do ten times worse.

Michigan is basically a more liberal version of Pennsylvania which, in turn, is a slightly more liberal version of Ohio.

The very same dynamics come into play in every state in the Great Lakes region-- unions, corruption, soft democrats, Catholics (of both the practicing variety which vote like evangelicals and the CINO variety which vote like Jews), minorities and the gimme crowd.

New York and Illinois are the only two which the GOP can afford to write off. They need only two of the remaining six to eek out a narrow win or three of the remaining six to ensure it.

[ak267]

If Romney loses MI, it’s pure PANIC mode for them.

Methinks they are flop-sweating right now.

[SeekAndFind]

RE: All people care about is thst he really loves church and his family doesnt have a hair out of place.

___________________________

Let’s set aside the hair, church and family (which are ALL PLUSES for him) and focus on Santorum’s policy proposals.

Actually, people are liking Santorum’s Health care plan:

epeal and Replace ObamaCare with
PATIENT-CENTERED HEALTHCARE

Every American should have access to high-quality, affordable health care, with health care decisions made by patients and their physicians, NOT government bureaucrats

America needs targeted, market-driven, patient-centered solutions to address the costs and underlying causes of being uninsured rather than a one-size fits-all, government-run health care system

THE SANTORUM HEALTH CARE SOLUTION

Priority number 1 = repeal ObamaCare and its burdensome job-destroying bureaucracy, taxes, mandates, and heavy-handed government decision-making… and replace it with market-driven, patient-centered alternatives to increasing health care access and affordability

President Obama promised that ObamaCare would decrease health care costs – but in a cruel bait-and-switch, the law significantly increases costs and mandates that working Americans foot the bill through unprecedented mandates, taxes and fees

Especially cruel are ObamaCare’s multiple incentives for employers to discontinue offering health care coverage to their employees – leaving patients uninsured and required to purchase health insurance the government chooses or pay stiff penalties

Strengthen patient-driven health coverage options such as Health Savings Accounts coupled with high deductible insurance plans (and repeal ObamaCare policies that gut such options)

Reduce costs through competition, increased transparency, electronic records, and health care literacy – empowering patients and their doctors with information and options

Allow patients to purchase health insurance across state lines to gain access to the best insurance coverage to fit their individual needs – patients shouldn’t be required to pay for (and subsidize for others) coverage for services they don’t want or need

Allow those who purchase their own health care coverage to do so with pre-tax dollars, including a refundable tax-credit for the purchase of health coverage (so that employees are not tied to jobs solely for health coverage, but have portability of affordable coverage)

Enact meaningful medical liability reform – to increase access, and reduce added costs and inefficiencies from defensive medicine for federal programs and incentivize state liability reforms

Block-grant Medicaid so that states aren’t burdened by unfunded, crippling, one-size-fits-all federal mandates, so that states can implement solutions to address their unique health care needs

_____________________________-

AND HIS ECONOMIC PLAN:

Cut and simplify personal income taxes by cutting the number of tax rates to just two - 10% and 28% returning to the Reagan era pro-growth top tax rate

Simplify the tax code and reduce middle income taxes by eliminating the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT)

Simplify the tax code, encourage savings and investment and reduce taxes by eliminating the Death Tax

Lower the Capital Gains and Dividend tax rates to 12% to spur economic growth and investment

Reduce taxes for families by tripling the personal deduction for each child

Reduce and simplify taxes for families by eliminating marriage tax penalties throughout the federal tax code

Retain deductions for charitable giving, home mortgage interest, healthcare, retirement savings, and children

Eliminate the cap on deductions for losses incurred in the sale of a principle residence

Cut the corporate income tax rate in half to make our businesses competitive around the world, from 35% to 17.5%

Eliminate the corporate income tax for manufacturers – from 35% to 0% - which will spur middle income job creation in the United States and will create a job multiplier effect for workers

Spur innovation in America by increasing the Research & Development Tax Credit from 14% to 20% and make it permanent

Eliminate the tax on repatriated taxable corporate income – from 35% from 0% - when manufacturers invest in plant and equipment; and reduce the corporate tax rate from 35% to 5.25% on other repatriated income and allow for 100% expensing for new business equipment

Repeal and Replace ObamaCare with market based healthcare innovation and competition to improve America and America’s health and create jobs

Reduce Federal (non-defense discretionary spending) to 2008 levels through across the board spending cuts;

Eliminate all energy and most agriculture subsidies within four years letting the markets work, eliminate resources for job killing radical regulatory approaches at the EPA and refocus its mission on safe and clean water and air and commonsense conservation, eliminate funding for Planned Parenthood and support adoption, reduce funding for the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) for extreme positions undermining economic freedom, eliminate funding for implementation of ObamaCare, and eliminate funding for United Nations organizations that undermine America’s interests

Pass a Balanced Budget Amendment to the Constitution capping government spending at 18% of GDP

Support Legislation to Reform the Congressional Budget Process and support legislation that requires Congress to pass constitutionally required spending bills or forfeit its members’ pay for the next fiscal year

Eliminate all other Obama era regulations with economic impact over $100 million

Negotiate 5 Free Trade Agreements and submit to Congress in first year of Presidency

Tap into America’s vast domestic energy resources to power our 21st century economy without picking winners and losers so all American families and businesses can have lower energy cost

Unleash innovation in telecommunications and Internet consumer options by getting government out of the way which will expand productivity and lower costs

Reform Social Security and Medicare for sustainable retirements

Block Grant Medicaid, Housing, Job Training, and other social services to the States

Freeze current non-defense related federal worker pay levels for a year and reduce federal workforce by at least 10% with no compensatory increase in the contract workforce.

Secure our border, streamline the legal immigration process to attract highly skilled talent and entrepreneurs from around the world and reform the agriculture worker program so it works for America’s farmers

Reclaim the role of parents as the decision makers in their children’s education and incentivize the states to promote parental choice and quality educational options because the family is the foundation of the economy

Promote tort reform and alternatives to litigation for federal policies and programs; and incentivize the states to expand these reforms across our economy

Approve the Keystone Pipeline and other job creating initiatives delayed and burdened excessively by government regulation

Overturn the National Labor Relations decision preventing Boeing from opening up its airplane factory in South Carolina and prevent other decisions like it

Phase out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s government backed role in mortgages and homeownership within five years

Audit the Federal Reserve and return it to it’s original purpose – a single charter to only manage inflation

Strengthen our national security and national defense so that we are not dependent upon our foes or competitors for critical manufacturing, technology, energy and other security needs

[Mariner]

"Easy for them to say since neither of their guys ever won an election outside a safely conservative congressional district, something Santorum managed to do four times. "

Well except for his loss in 2006...BY 18+ POINTS...in his home state...as a sitting Senator.

There's a reason for that folks.

I realize the Social Conservatives are determined to have their way on this. And, they are a plurality in the GOP Primary electorate and will likely prevail.

We'll see what happens.

[VanDeKoik]

Nope.

He is someone everyone is trying to project greatness onto with no clue as to why.

But because he hasnt been on the end of a multi-million dollar ad blitz, people assume he is bulletproof, and going to rocket into the WH.

Nevermind that he lost his senate seat in a landslide and was nowhere to be found since 2006, he is basically Reagan by virtue of wishing really really hard I guess.

[SeekAndFind]

RE: Nevermind that he lost his senate seat in a landslide and was nowhere to be found since 2006

Richard Nixon Lost to Kennedy in 1960 and then went on to LOSE the California elections for governor in 1962.

TWO CONSECUTIVE DEFEATS !!

If memory serves me right, I remember him becoming a two term President 6 years later....

[SeekAndFind]

RE: Well except for his loss in 2006...BY 18+ POINTS...in his home state...as a sitting Senator

_____________________________

Richard Nixon Lost to Kennedy in 1960 (as a SITTING VP) and then went on to LOSE the California elections for governor in 1962 (what with his national name recognition).

TWO CONSECUTIVE DEFEATS !!

If memory serves me right, I remember him becoming a two term President 6 years later....

By your lights, Nixon’s political career would have been over by 1962.

[USS Alaska]

This would be a loss that would force mittens to reconsider his entire reason to run.

If you can win in your home state, where you were born, and your dad was the gubbernator, it might be time to have a serious talk with your spouse about going home.

[ngat]

“By your lights, Nixon’s political career would have been over by 1962.”

Too bad that it wasn’t.

[napscoordinator]

Social Conservatives better be darn sure this is their man because they are likely to get what they want.

I am so glad. It is EXACTLY what I want. I want my children to grow up in the United States with morals, principles and character. Now that is what I call giving back to the next generation. God is DEFINITELY in charge of this election and I am glad he is. Santorum has the closest ideals of what is best in the United States. Life is good that is for sure.

[Springman]

Ping.