It doesn’t make a lot of sense actually. The Rafale is pretty expensive and it’s added capabilities don’t really matter to Brazil’s lower threat perceptions. And there’s little added political value in it. Unlike giving it to the US.
Brazil has been a customer of Dassault products for decades. Their most recent serious defense related aerospace purchase was for ex-French M2000s.
I, an influential Brazilian defense procurement official, would continue to buy ex-French M2000s for the Brazilian air force replacing 40-year old Mirage IIIs (F-103s) and Northrop F-5s. I’d also be looking hard at ex-U.S. Navy/Marine Corps F-18A/Ds as replacements for the A-4 Skyhawks they are operating from their ex-French carrier. Considering their potential opponents, Venezuela, these would be more than enough.
However, a burgeoning Brazil looking for new kit with some serious political benefits from a VERY motivated seller.......Rafale is very likely. Dassault and the French government will hand over the keys for serious contracts. Not a bad, just reality. And, considering the recent Indian decision to purchase 126 Rafales for the IAF, the Rafale has gained some viability and longevity it previously couldn’t have dreamed of. The Rafale is now a very serious player on the future combat market.
Don’t be at all surprised if Brazil and Embraer choose a triangulated third path that provides them a serious technological, political, and economic off-set in return.
Battle tested over Libya. The French don’t let the grass grow under their feet. Obama should have brought this deal to the USA—Oh I forgot—That would have brought jobs to the USA—My mistake. Maybe we should have bought those French air tankers, they would have been built in Alabama.
Thanks again sukhoi-30mki.