“you have a couple of unbeatable artillery platforms in LEO for $100 million each.”
Cost-Benefit: not there. One time usage of a $100 million weapon. Delivery of a thousand pounds to one target. Bombers = multiple numbers of sorties, to multiple targets. I’ve done strategic cost-benefit, tied to M&S, and you are not even beginning to touch the factors that are involved.
No stealth fighters were lost over Baghdad at all, a heavily defended area. I expect the same over any countries except Russia and China.
So, you have a great weapon and you will not use it against a “rational actor”? Limited one-time usage weapon, then. Plus, who is rational, exactly? All you guys are the same: “Iran has great new weapons, we can’t hope to penetrate against them.” At the same time, you say that Iran can’t see this new weapon coming. Can’t have it both ways. They’ll see it coming, and launch against Israel or the U.S. in a fit of “use it or lose it.” I’ve done M&S on these weapons, and regardless of high speed, there is time to see it coming and still launch. No one is going to believe it is conventional.
You are excluding one very important point from your cost-benefit analysis, and another secondary follow-on benefit.
The first: Time. Presently, if it is decided that a target absolutely, positively has to be blown up tonight, then somebody has to get on the horn to Whiteman (or Guam) and get the ground crews to work. That’s a couple of hours. Get the crews out and strapped in, platforms rotated up and out, and settle in to fly for 12-18 hours to target. Oh, and, better hope it’s dark over target for your mission profile...
With our orbiting garbage can full of rods, the ordnance is already there. Depending on the amount of cans in orbit, you could annihilate your target before the first bomber ground crewman gets to work.
While it is indeed true that the Stealth platforms have learned the secret Ninja art of not being seen, they still have the logistical trail of any other conventional platform.
Secondly, that kind of launch schedule gets a lot of boosters flying. This tends to (unless you’re working with NASA) drive the cost of such launches down. Additionally, you are learning about your launchers, equipment and figuring out how to make them better. With cheaper and better access to LEO, a lot of avenues open up.
As to use, the mere existence of such an operational system would cause a mass outbreak of rationality. Weapons do not necessarily have to be used to be effective...