People seem to have the fundamental misperception that the Republican nomination is based on those states that are actually Republican.
States like California and New York have a TON of delegates. The South is outnumbered in terms of delegates.
From here on out, Santorum will do better in the South than Gingrich does in the Northeast, Midwest, and West. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if Santorum does as well as Gingrich in some Southern states, based on evangelicals, social conservatives, and values voters.
| Santorum | 34% |
| Romney | 27% |
| Gingrich | 16% |
| Paul | 13% |
| Other | 1% |
| Undecided | 9% |
Two comments on this.
First, it's ARG and I know many deprecate its results here. However this so far diverged from my expectations that I thought it worth posting for entertainment value, if nothing else. And if it actually reflects reality Newt has taken a much bigger hit than I'd thought.
Second, my understanding is that Santorum failed to file a delegate slate in TN, but that TN rules permit delegates to be named afterwards so he still can win the state.