We are indeed past the point of no return. There is nothing anyone can do to stop the spiral. The only question is, how long do we have? Anyone care to make a prediction (and explanation)?
I think they'll continue to borrow and spend and pay it off by 'printing' more money.
This will lead to inflation and ultimately hyperinflation.
We are in or headed into an inflationary depression. (?)
When will things completely fall apart? I don't know.
I worry that it will be slow, grinding and miserable process for many. People will continue to get the same 'government money' but it won't buy enough.
IMO, this is the easiest way out for politicians. Republicans and their austerity will get them voted (maybe even recalled) out of office, pronto.
” - - - The only question is, how long do we have? Anyone care to make a prediction (and explanation)?”
Yes. The answer is very simple. If the US Government were to balance the Budget tonight, and keep it balanced for the next 100 years, this is what would happen to our 15 Trillion dollar, (in rounded off numbers), National Debt.
The rule of “72” states that debt, or interest, doubles in 72 years at 1 %, 36 years at 2 %, 18 years at 4 %, and so on, due to annual compounding of interest.
If US Bonds pay 4 %, then our National Debt would be 2 X 15.5 = 31 Trillion dollars in 2030.
However, we continue to elect Federal politicians who promise to expand and protect our entitlements, so National Debt creation will continue as long as we want it to. Well, unless all the Bonds are cashed in at once, or we lack the money, (with value), to pay the interest on the bonds for even one year.
How long do we have until what exactly? Define the criteria (e.g. Cannibalism).
The result of our foolishness is predictable - economic ruin. It is impossible to predict when this will occur. It is also difficult to predict how - will it be abrupt and sudden or will it fall apart over a period of time?
My best guess is that our politicians will honor their promises. In order to honor these promises, they will continue to borrow from future generations. When they can’t borrow any more, they will crank up the printing press until a government check won’t buy a few days worth of groceries. When this happens there will be civil unrest and economic collapse. They will try everything possible to keep the system afloat including price controls, confiscation of private wealth and property, oppressive business taxes (see Chicago), import taxes, federalizing pensions and investment funds, and any other foolish thing they can do. All of their actions only prolong the inevitable economic collapse and anarchy. The only thing that could save us would be incredible economic growth with severe spending cuts. Both growth and cuts are highly unlikely.
I hope I am wrong, but I hold very little hope that any President or national figure can turn this around given how partisan we are. People and interest groups are only concerned about themselves and there is little acceptance of shared sacrifice. This is why austerity measures won’t work. We could elect Reagan on his best day with a GOP congress and they would not cut even half of what is necessary for the government to get back on a path to fiscal stability. They would be voted out of office the next election for whomever promised to reverse the cuts and spend more. We have no stomach for pain. We have no problem passing our debts onto our children and future generations.
At this point, our whole nation resembles a gigantic ponzi scheme. Those at the top - our grandparents and boomers will suffer the least. Like any ponzi scheme that robs the new to pay for the old it only works as long as fools invest in it. Printing money only works as long as people believe a dollar is worth something.
Just my guess and it’s worth no more than yours.
Any article that refers to the “collapse of America” in terms of numbers without mentioning the demographic numbers is overlooking the main contributor. I don’t foresee a war with the Bronze Horde from the south, but as another FReeper pointed out, the systematic replacement of “Americans” (already well underway). The descendants of the Americans of the 18th and 19th centuries are disappearing, and being replaced by foreigners with completely different cultures and worldviews; there is no longer any assimilation, as the culture they would historically assimilate into has been denigrated into non-existence.
Even before the election of the Sultan, the left had radically transformed America; his election simply showed how far we’ve fallen.
A prediction?
Once the wheels come off(1-5 years), American Socialism will vanish as quickly as Soviet Communism - mere months will pass before natural human society renews itself by throwing off the socialist burdens.
Who knows what shape the future will take, but socialism is doomed, in the US no less than elsewhere. The illusion that the state can create a better society through the gifting of public goods to the population will be broken.
” - - - The only question is, how long do we have? “
The answer is up until the moment that the National Debt Bubble bursts, if present conditions continue.