I’m not sure they are right about Gingrich and the south. The latest North Carolina poll had Romney tied with Gingrich, and Santorum only 10 points down.
I’ve noticed that especially the Gingrich folks have started to embrace this “regional strategy” “brokered convention” meme, since Santorum has surged and won the last three contests. Oddly, before that, it was all “drop out for the good of the country”, now it’s “lets all get along and split the delegates”.
“I’m not sure they are right about Gingrich and the south. The latest North Carolina poll had Romney tied with Gingrich, and Santorum only 10 points down.”
You might have a point there. I think with Santorum grabbing momentum and headlines, Newt runs the risk of being pushed out of the spotlight until Super Tuesday. That was a losing strategy for Guliani in 2008 when he decided to skip the first 3 contests and wait for Florida.
I also think consolidation around Santorum is more likely than around Newt. Newt has been beaten up so badly by Romney and his surrogates, and a lot of Santorum backers would not go to Newt because of either reservations about his moral failings or questions about his electability with all his baggage. On the other hand, MO yesterday was a pretty good picture of what a contest might look like without Newt on the ballot.
Granted, after Romney’s slime machine pours millions into a character assassination against Santorum, the results might be closer. But I think Rick showed he can take on Romney head to head in a bellweather state that is known to be very representative of the country at large. Still, those results are pretty impressive, and they may indicate that Santorum might be the non-Romney most likely to consolidate the conservative base.
Rick won Iowa, and lost 4 in a row. Newt SC,and none since. Romney Fla and Nv- and now he fell flat. Perhaps Rick will break the trend. I wish your candidate luck.