Here's my read of the situation, based on conversations with reporters in both Pennsylvania and Georgia as well as politically active pastors and elders in both states who I have known from church connections for many years.
Both Gingrich and Santorum have a long history of appealing to “populist” insurgent groups which were mad at the political establishments in their states. In Pennsylvania, that meant dissatisfied Democrats willing to vote Republican who were often ethnic blue-collar “Reagan Democrats,” and in Pennsylvania that often meant union workers. In Georgia, that meant dissatisfied rural whites as well as upwardly mobile suburban white voters.
Put another way: Santorum is from a northern old-economy industrial state. Gingrich, despite being a northerner, moved to the South just as the Republican Party was beginning to gain ground. Economic progress in Pennsylvania depended for a very long time on keeping the unions happy and preventing them from calling destructive strikes. Economic progress in Georgia depended on attracting companies that were looking to move to lower-cost Southern states without a history of strong unions.
If Gingrich had stayed in the North or if Santorum had moved South, I'm not sure either of them, if they wanted to effectively represent their own local constituents, would have had voting histories radically different from the other candidate.
Of course, both men are now running for president where they need to represent the entire nation, not just a single state or congressional district. It's a valid question whether Santorum can think nationally; Gingrich has probably already shown he can do so.
My read is both men understand the importance of doing what's best for the nation, not merely their own local state, but it's not fair to blame either man for faithfully representing the people who put them into office.
Another factor: I am not a huge fan of unions, but in an environment where “Cap and Trade” and carbon taxes are threatening to destroy the coal industry, I am not necessarily unhappy with a candidate like Santorum who has a very long history of supporting coal miners.
Very interesting analysis. Nice to see something more than: “NEWT CHEATED ON HIS WIVES!!” “SANTORUM VOTED FOR EARMARKS!!”
You’ve informed my thinking on both candidates. More so on Santorum I think. I’m still a Newt guy and will remain so...and the more I think about it the more I have to admit to myself it’s just that I think he’s so damned smart.
I’ll make a less intellectual case: a football analogy. Baseball’s really my sport, but for this case football works better.
I view Santorum as the quarterback who can win the game for you if you have a good enough team around him. He won’t throw a lot of interceptions. He’ll make all the right reads. But you can’t put the game on his shoulders because he doesn’t have a big arm or tremendous creativity. Think Troy Aikman. Very good. Even a Hall of Famer. But no one thinks he would have won 3 titles if he had quarterbacked the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Gingrich on the other hand, is Brett Favre. He’ll take chances, even make the occasional boneheaded play. But he’ll also make plays that make your jaw drop. You have to decide if the great plays make up for the boneheaded plays.
OK, probably a dumb analogy, but that’s kind of how I see these guys. I can live with either. But I think the conservative movement needs a Favre type right now more than an Aikman type.
Hank