There are similar trends from last week’s primary in Florida. In every county Mittens won, the turnout was down significantly from 2008. In the counties that Gingrich won, the turnout was up noticeably from four years ago. Of course, Newt’s “victories” came in the so-called “Cracker Counties” of northern Florida and the Panhandle. The bad news for Mitt is that those Florida counties are very similar to those in other southern states that will vote on Super Tuesday.
Based on my very rough calculations, Romney can’t secure the nomination between now and March 6th. He will extend his delegate lead, but that gap will close considerably if Gingrich can carry those southern states on Super Tuesday.
As a result, you will be hearing a lot of media coverage telling us that “Newt is finished” between now and then. It will be interesting to see what resources Romney puts into those southern states prior to Super Tuesday. But the current crop of media reports is clearly aimed at discouraging “crackers” (including yours truly) from voting in the primary in March.
Texas alone is worth more delegates than Florida and Virginia combined. As of right now it’s not winner take all, but since the court pushed back our primary date, it could make made into winner take all again.